Judea Pearl

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Professor of Computer Science

Causes of Effects: Learning individual responses from population data

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost ever...
04/28/2021 ∙ by Scott Mueller, et al. ∙ 10 ∙ share

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Theoretical Impediments to Machine Learning With Seven Sparks from the Causal Revolution

Current machine learning systems operate, almost exclusively, in a stati...
01/11/2018 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Graphical Models for Processing Missing Data

This paper reviews recent advances in missing data research using graphi...
01/10/2018 ∙ by Karthika Mohan, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Incorporating Knowledge into Structural Equation Models using Auxiliary Variables

In this paper, we extend graph-based identification methods by allowing ...
11/10/2015 ∙ by Bryant Chen, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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External Validity: From Do-Calculus to Transportability Across Populations

The generalizability of empirical findings to new environments, settings...
03/05/2015 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Efficient Algorithms for Bayesian Network Parameter Learning from Incomplete Data

We propose an efficient family of algorithms to learn the parameters of ...
11/25/2014 ∙ by Guy Van den Broeck, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Logarithmic-Time Updates and Queries in Probabilistic Networks

In this paper we propose a dynamic data structure that supports efficien...
08/07/2014 ∙ by Arthur L. Delcher, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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A General Algorithm for Deciding Transportability of Experimental Results

Generalizing empirical findings to new environments, settings, or popula...
12/29/2013 ∙ by Elias Bareinboim, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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A Constraint Propagation Approach to Probabilistic Reasoning

The paper demonstrates that strict adherence to probability theory does ...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Learning Link-Probabilities in Causal Trees

A learning algorithm is presented which given the structure of a causal ...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Igor Roizer, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Distributed Revision of Belief Commitment in Multi-Hypothesis Interpretations

This paper extends the applications of belief-networks to include the re...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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The Recovery of Causal Poly-Trees from Statistical Data

Poly-trees are singly connected causal networks in which variables may a...
03/27/2013 ∙ by George Rebane, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Structuring Causal Tree Models with Continuous Variables

This paper considers the problem of invoking auxiliary, unobservable var...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Lei Xu, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Do We Need Higher-Order Probabilities and, If So, What Do They Mean?

The apparent failure of individual probabilistic expressions to distingu...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Causal Networks: Semantics and Expressiveness

Dependency knowledge of the form "x is independent of y once z is known"...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Tom S. Verma, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On the Logic of Causal Models

This paper explores the role of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a repr...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Dan Geiger, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Deciding Consistency of Databases Containing Defeasible and Strict Information

We propose a norm of consistency for a mixed set of defeasible and stric...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Moises Goldszmidt, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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d-Separation: From Theorems to Algorithms

An efficient algorithm is developed that identifies all independencies i...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Dan Geiger, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On the Equivalence of Causal Models

Scientists often use directed acyclic graphs (days) to model the qualita...
03/27/2013 ∙ by Tom S. Verma, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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An Algorithm for Deciding if a Set of Observed Independencies Has a Causal Explanation

In a previous paper [Pearl and Verma, 1991] we presented an algorithm fo...
03/13/2013 ∙ by Tom S. Verma, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Reasoning With Qualitative Probabilities Can Be Tractable

We recently described a formalism for reasoning with if-then rules that ...
03/13/2013 ∙ by Moises Goldszmidt, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Deciding Morality of Graphs is NP-complete

In order to find a causal explanation for data presented in the form of ...
03/06/2013 ∙ by Tom S. Verma, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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From Conditional Oughts to Qualitative Decision Theory

The primary theme of this investigation is a decision theoretic account ...
03/06/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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A Probabilistic Calculus of Actions

We present a symbolic machinery that admits both probabilistic and causa...
02/27/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On Testing Whether an Embedded Bayesian Network Represents a Probability Model

Testing the validity of probabilistic models containing unmeasured (hidd...
02/27/2013 ∙ by Dan Geiger, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Counterfactual Probabilities: Computational Methods, Bounds and Applications

Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g., "If A were true, would C hav...
02/27/2013 ∙ by Alexander Balke, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Identifying Independencies in Causal Graphs with Feedback

We show that the d -separation criterion constitutes a valid test for co...
02/13/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Probabilities of Causation: Bounds and Identification

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one...
01/16/2013 ∙ by Jin Tian, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Causal Discovery from Changes

We propose a new method of discovering causal structures, based on the d...
01/10/2013 ∙ by Jin Tian, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Direct and Indirect Effects

The direct effect of one eventon another can be defined and measured byh...
01/10/2013 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach --- Part 1: Causes

We propose a new definition of actual causes, using structural equations...
01/10/2013 ∙ by Joseph Y. Halpern, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On the Testable Implications of Causal Models with Hidden Variables

The validity OF a causal model can be tested ONLY IF the model imposes c...
12/12/2012 ∙ by Jin Tian, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Generalized Instrumental Variables

This paper concerns the assessment of direct causal effects from a combi...
12/12/2012 ∙ by Carlos Brito, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Qualitative MDPs and POMDPs: An Order-Of-Magnitude Approximation

We develop a qualitative theory of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and ...
12/12/2012 ∙ by Blai Bonet, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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The Do-Calculus Revisited

The do-calculus was developed in 1995 to facilitate the identification o...
10/16/2012 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Causal Inference by Surrogate Experiments: z-Identifiability

We address the problem of estimating the effect of intervening on a set ...
10/16/2012 ∙ by Elias Bareinboim, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Robustness of Causal Claims

A causal claim is any assertion that invokes causal relationships betwee...
07/11/2012 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Effects of Treatment on the Treated: Identification and Generalization

Many applications of causal analysis call for assessing, retrospectively...
05/09/2012 ∙ by Ilya Shpitser, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Confounding Equivalence in Causal Inference

The paper provides a simple test for deciding, from a given causal diagr...
03/15/2012 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On Measurement Bias in Causal Inference

This paper addresses the problem of measurement errors in causal inferen...
03/15/2012 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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On a Class of Bias-Amplifying Variables that Endanger Effect Estimates

This note deals with a class of variables that, if conditioned on, tends...
03/15/2012 ∙ by Judea Pearl, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Causes and Explanations: A Structural-Model Approach. Part II: Explanations

We propose new definitions of (causal) explanation, using structural equ...
08/20/2002 ∙ by Joseph Y. Halpern, et al. ∙ 0 ∙ share

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Judea Pearl

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