Quantifying the uncertainty of variance partitioning estimates of ecological datasets
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An important objective of experimental biology is the quantification of the relationship between predictor and response variables, a statistical analysis often termed variance partitioning (VP). In this paper, a series of simulations is presented, aiming to generate quantitative estimates of the expected statistical uncertainty of VP analyses. We demonstrate scenarios with considerable uncertainty in VP estimates, such that it significantly reduces the statistical reliability of the obtained results. Especially when a predictor variable of a dataset shows a low between-group variance, VP estimates may show a high margin of error. This becomes particularly important when the respective predictor variable only explains a small fraction of the overall variance, or the number of replicates is particularly small. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the expected error of VP estimates of a dataset can be approximated by bootstrap resampling, giving researchers a tool for the quantification of the uncertainty associated with an arbitrary VP analysis. We believe that this study may encourage biologists to approach routine statistical analyses such as VP more critically, and report associated error more frequently.
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