Development and evaluation of an open-source, machine learning-based average annual daily traffic estimation software

10/23/2019 ∙ by Zadid Khan, et al. ∙ 0

Traditionally, Departments of Transportation (DOTs) use the factor-based model to estimate Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) from short-term traffic counts. The expansion factors, derived from the permanent traffic count stations, are applied to the short-term counts for AADT estimation. The inherent challenges of the factor-based method (i.e., grouping the count stations, applying proper expansion factors) make the estimated AADT values erroneous. Based on a survey conducted by the authors, 97 transportation agencies use the factor-based AADT estimation model, and these agencies face the aforementioned challenges while using factor-based models to estimate AADT. To derive a more accurate AADT, this paper presents the "estimAADTion" software, which is an open-source software developed based on a machine learning method called support vector regression (SVR) for estimating AADT using 24-hour short-term count data. DOTs conduct short-term counts at different locations periodically. This software has been designed to estimate AADT at a particular location from the short-term counts collected at those locations. In order to estimate AADT from short-term counts, the software uses data from permanent count stations to train the SVR model. The performance of the "estimAADTion" software is validated using the short-term count data from South Carolina. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the AADT estimated from the software is 3 6



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