Thomas A Mellan | DeepAI

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Unifying the effective reproduction number, incidence, and prevalence under a stochastic age-dependent branching process

Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of...

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Gaussian Process Nowcasting: Application to COVID-19 Mortality Reporting

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Simulating normalising constants with referenced thermodynamic integration: application to COVID-19 model selection

Model selection is a fundamental part of Bayesian statistical inference;...

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A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments

There were 25.6 million attendances at Emergency Departments (EDs) in En...

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On the derivation of the renewal equation from an age-dependent branching process: an epidemic modelling perspective

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Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update

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