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03/24/2023
Forecasting Competitions with Correlated Events
Beginning with Witkowski et al. [2022], recent work on forecasting compe...
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02/01/2023
An Axiomatic Characterization of CFMMs and Equivalence to Prediction Markets
Constant-function market makers (CFMMs), such as Uniswap, are automated ...
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11/07/2022
Proper losses for discrete generative models
We initiate the study of proper losses for evaluating generative models ...
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07/18/2022
Consistent Polyhedral Surrogates for Top-k Classification and Variants
Top-k classification is a generalization of multiclass classification us...
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03/16/2022
The Structured Abstain Problem and the Lovász Hinge
The Lovász hinge is a convex surrogate recently proposed for structured ...
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03/14/2022
Quantum Information Elicitation
In the classic scoring rule setting, a principal incentivizes an agent t...
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02/24/2022
No-Regret Learning in Games is Turing Complete
Games are natural models for multi-agent machine learning settings, such...
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12/07/2021
Computational complexity of problems for deterministic presentations of sofic shifts
Sofic shifts are symbolic dynamical systems defined by the set of bi-inf...
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11/05/2021
Agreement Implies Accuracy for Substitutable Signals
Inspired by Aumann's agreement theorem, Scott Aaronson studied the amoun...
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10/26/2021
Surrogate Regret Bounds for Polyhedral Losses
Surrogate risk minimization is an ubiquitous paradigm in supervised mach...
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06/28/2021
Graphical Economies with Resale
Kakade, Kearns, and Ortiz (KKO) introduce a graph-theoretic generalizati...
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03/05/2021
Learning in Matrix Games can be Arbitrarily Complex
A growing number of machine learning architectures, such as Generative A...
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02/16/2021
Efficient Competitions and Online Learning with Strategic Forecasters
Winner-take-all competitions in forecasting and machine-learning suffer ...
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02/16/2021
Unifying Lower Bounds on Prediction Dimension of Consistent Convex Surrogates
Given a prediction task, understanding when one can and cannot design a ...
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09/05/2019
Computational Complexity of k-Block Conjugacy
We consider several computational problems related to conjugacy between ...
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07/17/2019
An Embedding Framework for Consistent Polyhedral Surrogates
We formalize and study the natural approach of designing convex surrogat...
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12/18/2018
Partial Verification as a Substitute for Money
Recent work shows that we can use partial verification instead of money ...
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04/20/2018
The Identifiable Elicitation Complexity of the Mode is Infinite
A property is a real- or vector-valued function on a set of probability ...
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04/20/2018
The Indentifiable Elicitation Complexity of the Mode is Infinite
A property is a real- or vector-valued function on a set of probability ...
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02/27/2018
Multi-Observation Regression
Recent work introduced loss functions which measure the error of a predi...
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09/28/2017
An Axiomatic Study of Scoring Rule Markets
Prediction markets are well-studied in the case where predictions are pr...
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07/30/2014
