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03/14/2023
Informational Rescaling of PCA Maps with Application to Genetic Distance
We discuss the inadequacy of covariances/correlations and other measures...
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01/26/2023
The Probability Conflation: A Reply
We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails...
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07/31/2020
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables
We discuss common errors and fallacies when using naive "evidence based"...
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01/24/2020
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical tec...
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11/30/2019
Branching epistemic uncertainty and thickness of tails
This is an epistemological approach to errors in both inference and risk...
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02/15/2018