WRSE – a non-parametric weighted-resolution ensemble for predicting individual survival distributions in the ICU

11/02/2020
by   Jonathan Heitz, et al.
0

Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS, have recently been supplemented with data-driven approaches that track the dynamic mortality risk over time. Recent works have focused on enhancing the information delivered to clinicians even further by producing full survival distributions instead of point predictions or fixed horizon risks. In this work, we propose a non-parametric ensemble model, Weighted Resolution Survival Ensemble (WRSE), tailored to estimate such dynamic individual survival distributions. Inspired by the simplicity and robustness of ensemble methods, the proposed approach combines a set of binary classifiers spaced according to a decay function reflecting the relevance of short-term mortality predictions. Models and baselines are evaluated under weighted calibration and discrimination metrics for individual survival distributions which closely reflect the utility of a model in ICU practice. We show competitive results with state-of-the-art probabilistic models, while greatly reducing training time by factors of 2-9x.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
09/06/2021

Early ICU Mortality Prediction and Survival Analysis for Respiratory Failure

Respiratory failure is the one of major causes of death in critical care...
research
06/23/2021

Integrating relative survival in multi-state models – a non-parametric approach

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-hist...
research
12/09/2021

Evaluation of survival distribution predictions with discrimination measures

In this paper we consider how to evaluate survival distribution predicti...
research
03/14/2021

From Static to Dynamic Prediction: Wildfire Risk Assessment Based on Multiple Environmental Factors

Wildfire is one of the biggest disasters that frequently occurs on the w...
research
06/21/2018

Countdown Regression: Sharp and Calibrated Survival Predictions

Personalized probabilistic forecasts of time to event (such as mortality...
research
01/27/2023

Deep Clustering Survival Machines with Interpretable Expert Distributions

Conventional survival analysis methods are typically ineffective to char...
research
12/19/2022

Discrimination, calibration, and point estimate accuracy of GRU-D-Weibull architecture for real-time individualized endpoint prediction

Real-time individual endpoint prediction has always been a challenging t...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset