Why comparing survival curves between two prognostic subgroups may be misleading

11/04/2016
by   Damjan Krstajic, et al.
0

We consider the validation of prognostic diagnostic tests that predict two prognostic subgroups (high-risk vs low-risk) for a given disease or treatment. When comparing survival curves between two prognostic subgroups the possibility of misclassification arises, i.e. a patient predicted as high-risk might be de facto low-risk and vice versa. This is a fundamental difference from comparing survival curves between two populations (e.g. control vs treatment in RCT), where there is not an option of misclassification between members of populations. We show that there is a relationship between prognostic subgroups' survival estimates at a time point and positive and negative predictive values in the classification settings. Consequently, the prevalence needs to be taken into account when validating the survival of prognostic subgroups at a time point. Our findings question current methods of comparing survival curves between prognostic subgroups in the validation set because they do not take into account the survival rates of the population.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

05/08/2018

Crossing points in survival analysis sensitively depend on system conditions

Crossing survival curves complicate how we interpret results from a clin...
01/31/2021

Nonparametric Analysis of Delayed Treatment Effects using Single-Crossing Constraints

Clinical trials involving novel immuno-oncology (IO) therapies frequentl...
01/26/2021

Dynamic prediction of time to event with survival curves

With the ever-growing complexity of primary health care system, proactiv...
10/30/2020

Analyzing differences between restricted mean survival time curves using pseudo-values

Hazard ratios are ubiquitously used in time to event analysis to quantif...
10/26/2020

Accurate Prediction of Neuroblastoma Outcome based on miRNA Expression Profiles

For neuroblastoma, the most common extracranial tumour of childhood, ide...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.