DeepAI
Log In Sign Up

Where to Drill Next? A Dual-Weighted Approach to Adaptive Optimal Design of Groundwater Surveys

11/15/2021
by   Mikkel B. Lykkegaard, et al.
0

We present a novel approach to adaptive optimal design of groundwater surveys - a methodology for choosing the location of the next monitoring well. Our dual-weighted approach borrows ideas from Bayesian Optimisation and goal-oriented error estimation to propose the next monitoring well, given that some data is already available from existing wells. Our method is distinct from other optimal design strategies in that it does not rely on Fisher Information and it instead directly exploits the posterior uncertainty and the expected solution to a dual (or adjoint) problem to construct an acquisition function that optimally reduces the uncertainty in the model as a whole and some engineering quantity of interest in particular. We demonstrate our approach in the context of 2D groundwater flow example and show that employing the expectation of the dual solution as a weighting function improves the posterior estimate of the quantity of interest on average by a factor of 3, compared to the baseline approach, where only the posterior uncertainty is considered.

READ FULL TEXT

page 12

page 13

04/03/2017

Efficient acquisition rules for model-based approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inferenc...
04/15/2021

Compressive time-lapse seismic monitoring of carbon storage and sequestration with the joint recovery model

Time-lapse seismic monitoring of carbon storage and sequestration is oft...
08/30/2022

Model-robust Bayesian design through Generalised Additive Models for monitoring submerged shoals

Optimal sampling strategies are critical for surveys of deeper coral ree...
02/05/2018

Bayesian Coreset Construction via Greedy Iterative Geodesic Ascent

Coherent uncertainty quantification is a key strength of Bayesian method...
02/17/2020

Flexible goal-oriented space-time adaptivity for coupled Stokes flow and convection-dominated transport

In this work, a flexible, fully space-time adaptive finite element appro...
08/09/2014

Optimally-Weighted Herding is Bayesian Quadrature

Herding and kernel herding are deterministic methods of choosing samples...