Visualization of Model Parameter Sensitivity along Trajectories in Numerical Weather Predictions

05/02/2022
by   Christoph Neuhauser, et al.
0

Numerical weather prediction models rely on parameterizations for subgrid-scale processes, e.g., for cloud microphysics. These parameterizations are a well-known source of uncertainty in weather forecasts that can be quantified via algorithmic differentiation, which computes the sensitivities of atmospheric variables to changes in model parameters. It is particularly interesting to use sensitivities to analyze the validity of physical assumptions on which microphysical parameterizations in the numerical model source code are based. In this article, we consider the use case of strongly ascending trajectories, so-called warm conveyor belt trajectories, known to have a significant impact on intense surface precipitation rates in extratropical cyclones. We present visual analytics solutions to analyze the sensitivities of rain mass density to large numbers of model parameters along such trajectories. We propose an interactive visual interface that enables a) a comparative analysis of the temporal development of parameter sensitivities on a set of trajectories, b) an effective comparison of the distributions of selected sensitivities at a single location on each trajectory, and c) an assessment of the spatio-temporal relationships between parameter sensitivities and the shape of trajectories. We demonstrate how our approach enables atmospheric scientists to interactively analyze the uncertainty in the microphysical parameterizations, and along the trajectories, with respect to selected state variables. We apply our approach to the analysis of convective trajectories within the extratropical cyclone "Vladiana", which occurred between 22-25 September 2016 over the North Atlantic.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 3

page 4

page 7

page 9

page 10

page 14

research
03/03/2020

Assessment of WRF model parameter sensitivity for high-intensity precipitation events during the Indian summer monsoon

Default values for many model parameters in Numerical Weather Prediction...
research
02/20/2018

A Learning Based Approach for Uncertainty Analysis in Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of phy...
research
04/11/2020

Efficient Suspected Infected Crowds Detection Based on Spatio-Temporal Trajectories

Virus transmission from person to person is an emergency event facing th...
research
11/03/2022

An Empirical Bayes Analysis of Vehicle Trajectory Models

We present an in-depth empirical analysis of the trade-off between model...
research
03/04/2019

Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production - Part 2: Photovoltaic Solar

We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregat...
research
07/22/2023

Reliability of the g factor over time in Italian INVALSI data (2010-2022): What can achievement-g tell us about the Flynn effect?

Generational intelligence test score gains over large parts of the 20th ...
research
07/27/2023

Visual Analysis of Displacement Processes in Porous Media using Spatio-Temporal Flow Graphs

We developed a new approach comprised of different visualizations for th...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset