Use of survival analysis and simulation to improve maintenance planning of high voltage instrument transformers in the Dutch transmission system
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This paper describes the use of survival analysis and simulation to model the lifetime of high voltage instrument transformers in the Dutch transmission sys-tem. To represent asset aging, the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier method is used to enable the fitting of Weibull distribution. Such an approach is implemented on three different voltage levels, namely 110kV, 150kV, and 220/380kV. Real failure and inspection data is used to achieve a realistic failure model of the instrument trans-formers. Failure and maintenance data occurring between 1989 and 2021 have been used for this study. In spite of missing and low-quality data, a rich failure database could still be prepared. This study also offers insights into factors (i.e., voltage level, in-service age) influencing the remaining life from both graphical survival function and parametric Weibull distribution analysis. Based on the derived statistics, future possible maintenance planning scenarios are simulated under a complex system modelling framework in a digital twin enabled platform. Eventually, the scenarios are evaluated in terms of replacement costs (CAPEX), inspection hours, and unavailability hours.
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