Unconstrained Influence Diagrams

12/12/2012

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by   Finn Verner Jensen, et al.

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We extend the language of influence diagrams to cope with decision scenarios where the order of decisions and observations is not determined. As the ordering of decisions is dependent on the evidence, a step-strategy of such a scenario is a sequence of dependent choices of the next action. A strategy is a step-strategy together with selection functions for decision actions. The structure of a step-strategy can be represented as a DAG with nodes labeled with action variables. We introduce the concept of GS-DAG: a DAG incorporating an optimal step-strategy for any instantiation. We give a method for constructing GS-DAGs, and we show how to use a GS-DAG for determining an optimal strategy. Finally we discuss how analysis of relevant past can be used to reduce the size of the GS-DAG.