Towards fast machine-learning-assisted Bayesian posterior inference of realistic microseismic events

by   Davide Piras, et al.

Bayesian inference applied to microseismic activity monitoring allows for principled estimation of the coordinates of microseismic events from recorded seismograms, and their associated uncertainties. However, forward modelling of these microseismic events, necessary to perform Bayesian source inversion, can be prohibitively expensive in terms of computational resources. A viable solution is to train a surrogate model based on machine learning techniques, to emulate the forward model and thus accelerate Bayesian inference. In this paper, we improve on previous work, which considered only sources with isotropic moment tensor. We train a machine learning algorithm on the power spectrum of the recorded pressure wave and show that the trained emulator allows for the complete and fast retrieval of the event coordinates for any source mechanism. Moreover, we show that our approach is computationally inexpensive, as it can be run in less than 1 hour on a commercial laptop, while yielding accurate results using less than 10^4 training seismograms. We additionally demonstrate how the trained emulators can be used to identify the source mechanism through the estimation of the Bayesian evidence. This work lays the foundations for the efficient localisation and characterisation of any recorded seismogram, thus helping to quantify human impact on seismic activity and mitigate seismic hazard.


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