Bayesian inference is the task of reasoning about random variables that can only be measured indirectly. Given a probabilistic model and a data set of observations, Bayesian inference seeks the posterior probability distribution over the remaining, i.e., unobserved or ‘latent’ variables. The computational bottleneck is calculating the marginal likelihood, the probability of the data with latent variables being integrated out. The marginal likelihood is also an important quantity for model selection. It is the objective function of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm , which has seen a recent resurgence with the popularity of variational autoencoders (VAEs) .
Variational inference (VI) [14, 13, 46] scales up approximate Bayesian inference to large data sets by framing inference as an optimization problem. VI derives and maximizes a lower bound to the log marginal likelihood, termed ’evidence’, and uses this so-called ’evidence lower bound’ (ELBO) as a proxy for the true evidence. In its original formulation, VI was limited to a restricted class of so-called conditionally conjugate models , for which a closed-form expression for the ELBO can be derived by solving known integrals. More recently, black box variational inference (BBVI) approaches have become more popular [34, 37]
, which lift this restriction by approximating the gradient of the ELBO by Monte Carlo samples. BBVI also enables the optimization of alternative bounds that do not possess closed-form integrals. With Monte Carlo gradient estimation, the focus shifts from tractability of these integrals to the variance of the Monte Carlo gradient estimators, asking for bounds with low-variance gradients.
In this article, we propose a family of new lower bounds that are tighter than the standard ELBO while having lower variance than previous alternatives and admitting unbiased Monte Carlo estimation of the gradients of the bound. We derive these new bounds by introducing ideas from so-called variational perturbation theory into BBVI.
Variational perturbation theory provides an alternative to VI for approximating the evidence [31, 30, 29, 41]. It is based on a Taylor expansion of the evidence around the variational distribution, i.e., a parameterized approximate posterior distribution. The lowest order of the Taylor expansion recovers the standard ELBO, and higher order terms correct for the mismatch the between variational distribution and true posterior.
Variational perturbation theory based on so-called cumulant expansions 
requires a fair amount of manual derivations and puts strong constraints on the tractability of certain integrals. A cumulant expansion also generally does not result in a lower bound, making it impossible to minimize the approximation error with stochastic gradient descent. In this article, we propose a new variant of perturbation theory that addresses these issues. Our proposed perturbative expansion leads to a family of lower bounds on the marginal likelihood that can be optimized with the same black box techniques as the standard ELBO. The proposed bounds
are enumerated by an odd integer, the order of the perturbative expansion, and are given by
is the joint distribution of the probabilistic model with observed variablesand latent variables , is the variational distribution with variational parameters , and is the marginal likelihood. Further, the reference energy is an additional free parameter over which we optimize jointly with .
The proposed bounds in Eq. 1 generalize the standard ELBO, which one obtains for . Higher order terms make the bound successively tighter while guaranteeing that it still remains a lower bound for all odd orders . In the limit , Eq. 1 becomes an asymptotic series to the exact marginal likelihood .
Our main contributions are as follows:
We revisit variational perturbation theory [31, 30, 29] based on cumulant expansions, which does not result in a bound. By introducing a generalized variational inference framework, we propose a similar yet alternative construction to cumulant expansions which results in a valid lower bound of the evidence.
We furthermore show that the new bound admits unbiased Monte Carlo gradients with low variance, making it well suited to stochastic optimization. Unbiasedness is an important property and is necessary to guarantee convergence . Biased gradients may destroy the bound and may lead to divergence problems [7, 10, 11].
We evaluate the proposed method experimentally both for inference and for model selection. Already the lowest nonstandard order is less prone to underestimating posterior variances than standard VI, and it fits better models in a variational autoencoder (VAE) on small data sets. While this reduction in bias comes at the cost of larger gradient variance, we show experimentally and explain theoretically that the gradient variance is still smaller than in previously proposed alternatives [27, 12, 10] to the standard ELBO, resulting in faster convergence.
This paper is an extended version of a proceeding conference paper by the same authors , which also gave the first reference to variational inference as a form of biased importance sampling, where the tightness of the bound is traded off against a low-variance stochastic gradient.
Our paper is structured as follows. In Section 2, we revisit the cumulant expansion for variational inference. In Section 3, we derive a new family of bounds with similar properties, but which is amenable to stochastic optimization. We then discuss theoretical properties of the bounds. Experiments are presented in Section 4. Finally, we discuss related work in Section 5 and open questions in Section 6.
2 Background: Perturbation Theory for Variational Inference
We begin by reviewing variational perturbation theory as introduced in . We consider a probabilistic model with data , latent variables , and joint distribution . The goal of Bayesian inference is to find the posterior distribution,
Exact posterior inference is impossible in all but the most simple models because of the intractable integral defining the marginal likelihood in Eq. 2. Variational perturbation theory approximates the log marginal likelihood, or evidence, , via a Taylor expansion. We introduce a so-called variational distribution , parameterized by variational parameters , and we write the evidence as follows:
Above, the ‘interaction energy’ is defined as
and the notation on the right-hand side of Eq. 3 denotes that we introduced an auxiliary real parameter , which we set to one at the end of the calculation.
The reason for this notation is as follows. We approximate the right-hand side of Eq. 3 by a finite order Taylor expansion in before setting . While is not a small parameter, it is a placeholder that keeps track of appearances of which we consider to be small for all in the support of . More precisely, it is enough to demand that is almost constant in with small deviations, as is the case when is close to the posterior . (This will become clear in Eq. 6 below.) Hence, we can think of this approximation informally as an expansion in terms of the difference between the log variational distribution and the log posterior.
The first order term of the Taylor expansion is the evidence lower bound, or ELBO,
As is well known in variational inference (VI) [14, 5, 46], the ELBO is a lower bound on the evidence, i.e., for all . VI maximizes the ELBO over , and thus tries to find the best approximation of the evidence that is possible within a first order Taylor expansion in .
Higher order terms of the Taylor expansion lead to corrections to the standard ELBO. Suppressing the dependence of on and to simplify the notation, we obtain
Variational perturbation theory has not found its way into mainstream machine learning, which arguably has to do with two major problems of the cumulant expansion and related approaches. First, in contrast to the ELBO, a higher order cumulant expansion does not result in a lower bound on the evidence. This prevents the usage of gradient-based optimization methods (as opposed to, e.g., coordinate updates), which is currently the mainstream approach to VI. A second drawback that will be discussed below is that the cumulant expansion cannot be estimated efficiently using Monte Carlo sampling, as we discuss in Section3.3 below. In the following sections, we will present a similar construction of an improved variational objective that does not suffer from these shortcomings, and that is compatible with black-box optimization approaches. To this end, we have to start from a generalized formulation of VI.
3 Perturbative Black Box Variational Inference
This section presents our main results. We derive a family of new objective functions for Black Box Variational Inference (BBVI) which are amenable to stochastic optimization. We begin by deriving a generalized ELBO for VI based on concave functions. We then show that, in a special case, we obtain a strict bound with resemblance to variational perturbation theory.
3.1 Variational Inference with Generalized Lower Bounds
Variational inference (VI) approximates the evidence of the model in Eq. 2 by maximizing the ELBO (Eq. 5) over variational parameters . A more common approach to derive the ELBO is through Jensen’s inequality [14, 5, 46]. Here, we present a similar derivation for a broader family of lower bounds.
To this end, we consider an arbitrary concave function over the positive reals, i.e., with second derivative . As an example, could be the logarithm. We now consider the marginal likelihood , and we derive a lower bound on using Jensen’s inequality:
As stated above, for (which is a concave function), the bound in Eq. 7 is the standard ELBO from Eq. 5. In this case, we refer to the corresponding VI scheme as KLVI, as maximizing the standard ELBO is equivalent to minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from to the true posterior .
The above class of generalized bounds is compatible with current mainstream optimization schemes for VI, oftentimes summarized as Black Box Variational Inference (BBVI) [37, 34]. For the reader’s convenience, we briefly review these techniques. BBVI optimizes the ELBO via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) based on noisy estimates of its gradient. Crudely speaking, BBVI obtains its gradient estimates in three steps: (1) by drawing Monte Carlo (MC) samples , (2) by averaging the bound over these samples, and (3) by computing the gradient on the resulting average. A slight complication arises as both the expression inside the expectation in Eq. 7 as well as the distribution of MC samples itself depend on . The two main solutions to this problem are as follows:
Reparameterization gradients  can be used if the samples can be expressed as some deterministic differentiable transformation of auxiliary random variables drawn from some -independent distribution . Under these conditions, the gradient of the bound can be written as
One obtains an unbiased estimate ofby approximating the expectation on the right-hand side of Eq. 8 or 9 via MC samples or , respectively. Empirically, reparameterization gradients often have smaller variance than score function gradients.
Based on these new bounds , we make the following observations.
Variational Inference and Importance Sampling.
The generalized family of bounds, Eq. 7, shows that VI and importance sampling are closely connected [4, 11]. For being the identity, the variational bound becomes independent of and instead becomes an unbiased importance sampling estimator of , with the proposal distribution and the importance ratio . For other choices of , the bound is no longer an unbiased estimator of . This way, we can identify BBVI as a form of biased importance sampling.
Bias Variance Trade-off.
Importance sampling suffers from high variance in high dimensions because the log importance ratio (Eq. 4) scales approximately linearly with the size of the model. (To see this, consider a setup where both and factorize over all data points, in which case is proportional to .)
The choice of function in Eq. 7 trades off some of this variance for a bias. KLVI uses , which leads to low variance gradient estimates in Eqs. 8-9 that depend only linearly on , rather than exponentially. This makes the KLVI bound easy to optimize, at the cost of some bias. An alternative to KLVI that has been explored in the literature is -VI [27, 12, 21, 10], which corresponds to setting with some , and thus . This choice has an alternative bias-variance trade-off, as enters in the exponent, leading to more variance than KLVI. Our empirical results in Figure 4, discussed in Section 4.3, confirm this picture by showing that -VI suffers from slow convergence due to large gradient variance.
According to our new findings, a good alternative bound should perform favorably on the bias-variance trade-off. It should ideally depend on only polynomially as opposed to exponentially. Such a family of bounds will be introduced next. We also show how they connect to variational perturbation theory (Section 2).
3.2 Perturbative Lower Bounds
We now propose a family of concave functions for the bound in Eq. 7 that is inspired by ideas from perturbation theory (Section 2). The choice of the function determines the tightness of the bound . A tight bound, i.e., a good approximation of the marginal likelihood, is important for the variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, which uses the bound as a proxy for the marginal likelihood. The bound becomes perfectly tight if we set to the identity function, (black line in Figure 1). However, as we discussed, this is a singular limit in which the bound does not depend on , and therefore does not provide any gradient signal to learn an optimal variational distribution .
Ideally, the bound should be as tight as possible if is close to the posterior . In order to obtain a gradient signal, the bound should be lower if is very different from the posterior. To achieve this, we recall that the argument of the function in Eq. 7 is the fraction , which equals if is the true posterior. Thus, the concave function should be close to the identity function for arguments close to . Since the only things we know about are that it is positive and independent of , we parameterize it as with a real parameter , over which we optimize.
For any , and any odd integer , we propose the following concave function:
The pink and green lines in Figure 1 plot for and for and , respectively. The function converges pointwise to the identity function (black line in Figure 1) for because it is the th order Taylor expansion of in around the reference point . For any finite , the Taylor expansion approximates the identity function (black line in Figure 1) most closely if the expansion parameter is small. We provide further intuition for Eq. 10 in Section 3.3 below.
An important result of this section is that the functions define a lower bound on the marginal likelihood for any choice of and ,
Here, the last equality merely introduces a more convenient notation for the bound defined by Eqs. 7 and 10. An explicit form for was given in Eq. 1 in the introduction. Eq. 11 follows from Eq. 7 and from the fact that is concave and lies below the identity function, which we prove formally in Section 3.4 below. Since is a lower bound on for all , we can find the optimal reference point that leads to the tightest bound by maximizing jointly over both and . We also prove in Section 3.4 that the bound on is nontrivial, i.e., that is positive at its maximum. (A negative bound would be vacuous since is trivially larger than any negative number.)
To optimize the bound, we use SGD with reparameterization gradients, see Section 3.1. Score function gradients can be used in a similar way. Algorithm 1 explains the optimization in detail. We name the method ‘Perturbative Black Box Variational Inference’ (PBBVI). The algorithm implicitly scales all gradients by a factor of to avoid a potential exponential explosion or decay of gradients due to the factor in the bound, Eq. 1. We calculate these rescaled gradients in a numerically stable way by considering the surrogate objective function
The rescaled gradients are thus
3.3 Connection to Variational Perturbation Theory
We now provide more intuition for the choice of the functions in Eq. 10 by comparing the resulting bounds, Eq. 1, to the cumulant expansion, Eq. 6. We will show that the bounds enjoy similar benefits as the cumulant expansion while being valid lower bounds and providing unbiased Monte Carlo gradients.
Both the cumulant expansion and the proposed bounds are Taylor expansions in . The cumulant expansion in Eq. 6 is a Taylor expansion of the evidence . By contrast, the bound in Eq. 1 is a Taylor expansion of the marginal likelihood , and the expansion starts from a reference point over which we optimize.
Despite this difference, the two expansions are remarkably similar up to order . Up to this order, the cumulant expansion, Eq. 6, coincides with a Taylor expansion of in . It is thus a special case of the proposed lower bound if we set . For , the cumulant expansion contains additional terms that do not appear in the bound , such as the last spelled out term on the right-hand side of Eq. 6. These terms contain products of expectations under , which are difficult to estimate with Monte Carlo techniques without introducing an additional bias. The bounds , by contrast, depend only linearly on expectations under , which means that they can be estimated without bias with a single sample from .
In addition, the main advantage of over the cumulant expansion is that is a lower bound on the marginal likelihood for all and all . This allows us to make the bound as tight as possible by maximizing it over and using stochastic gradient estimates. By contrast, variational perturbation theory with the cumulant expansion requires either optimizing towards saddle points, or optimizing a separate objective function, such as the ELBO, to find a good variational distribution .
The lack of a lower bound in the cumulant expansion is a particular limitation when performing model selection with the variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. Variational EM fits a model by maximizing an approximation of the marginal likelihood or the model evidence over model parameters. Such an optimization can diverge if the approximation is not a lower bound. This makes perturbative BBVI an interesting alternative for improved evidence approximations [7, 10, 21, 11, 33].
3.4 Proofs of the Theorems
We conclude the presentation of the proposed bounds by providing proofs of the claims made in Section 3.2.
The first derivative of is
For the second derivative, the two contributions from the denominator and the enumerator cancel for all but the highest order term, and we obtain
which is nonnegative everywhere for odd . Therefore, is concave.
Consider the function , which is also concave since it has the same second derivative as . Further, has a stationary point at since , which can be verified by inserting into Eq. 14. For a concave function, a stationary point is a global maximum. Therefore, we have
which is equivalent to the proposition .
The bound on the positive quantity is nontrivial, i.e., the maximum value of the bound, , is positive for all odd integers .
At the maximum position of , its gradient is zero. Taking the gradient with respect to in Eq. 1 and using the product rule for the prefactor and the remaining expression, we find that all terms except the contribution from cancel. We thus obtain, at the maximum position ,
Thus, when we evaluate at , the term with on the right-hand side of Eq. 1 evaluates to zero, and we are left with
where the sum runs only to .
We now show that is positive for all and all odd . If , then is trivially positive. For , is a polynomial in of even order , whose highest order term has a positive coefficient . Therefore, goes to positive infinity for both and . It thus has a global minimum at some value . At the global minimum, its derivative is zero, i.e.,
which is nonnegative because is even. Further, is not zero since this would imply by Eq. 21, but by Eq. 19. Therefore, is strictly positive, and since is a global minimum of , we have for all . Inserting into Eq. 18 concludes the proof that the lower bound at the optimum is positive. ∎
We evaluate PBBVI with different models. We begin with a qualitative comparison on a simple one-dimensional toy problem (Section 4.1). We then investigate the behavior of BBVI in a controlled setup of Gaussian processes on synthetic data (Section 4.2
). Next, we evaluate PBBVI based on a classification task using Gaussian processes classifiers, where we use data from the UCI machine learning repository (Section4.3). This is a Bayesian non-conjugate setup where black box inference is required. Finally, we use an experiment with the variational autoencoder (VAE) to explore our approach on a deep generative model (Section 4.4). This experiment is carried out on MNIST data. We use the perturbative order for all experiments with PBBVI. This corresponds to the lowest order beyond standard VI with the KL divergence (KLVI), since has to be an odd integer, and PBBVI with is equivalent to KLVI. Across all the experiments, PBBVI demonstrates advantages based on different metrics.
4.1 Mass Covering Effect
In Figure 2
, we fit a Gaussian distribution to a one-dimensional bimodal target distribution (black line), using different divergences. Compared to BBVI with the standard KL divergence (KLVI, pink line),-divergences  are more mode-seeking (purple line) for large values of , and more mass-covering (orange line) for small  (the limit recovers KLVI ). Our PBBVI bound (, green line) achieves a similar mass-covering effect as in -divergences, but with associated low-variance reparameterization gradients. This is seen in Figure 4 (b), discussed in Section 4.3 below, which compares the gradient variances of -VI and PBBVI as a function of latent dimensions.
4.2 GP Regression on Synthetic Data
Gaussian process regression on synthetic data (green dots). Three standard deviations are shown in varying shades of orange. The blue dashed lines show three standard deviations of the true posterior. The red dashed lines show the inferred three standard deviations using KLVI (a) and PBBVI (b). We see that the results from our proposed PBBVI are close to the analytic solution while traditional KLVI underestimates the variances.
In this section, we inspect the inference behavior using a synthetic data set with Gaussian processes (GP). We generate the data according to a Gaussian noise distribution centered around a mixture of sinusoids, and we sample 50 data points (green dots in Figure 3). We then use a GP to model the data, thus assuming the generative process and .
In this experiment, the model admits an analytic solution (three standard deviations shown in blue dashed lines in Figure 3). We compare the analytic solution to approximate posteriors using a fully factorized Gaussian variational distribution obtained by KLVI (Figure 3 (a)) and by the proposed PBBVI (Figure 3 (b)). The results from PBBVI are almost identical to the analytic solution. In contrast, KLVI underestimates the posterior variance. This is consistent with Table 1 (a), which shows the average marginal variances. PBBVI results are much closer to the analytic results.
4.3 Gaussian Process Classification
We evaluate the performance of PBBVI and KLVI on a GP classification task. Since the model is non-conjugate, no analytical baseline is available in this case. We model the data with the following generative process:
Above, is the GP kernel,
indicates the sigmoid function, and
indicates the Bernoulli distribution. We furthermore use the Matern-32 kernel,
We use four data sets from the UCI machine learning repository, suitable for binary classification: Crab (200 datapoints), Pima (768 datapoints), Heart (270 datapoints), and Sonar (208 datapoints). We randomly split each of the data sets into two halves. One half is used for training and the other half is used for testing. We set the hyper parameters and throughout all experiments, where is the dimensionality of the input .
Table 1 (b) shows the classification performance (error rate) for these data sets. Our proposed PBBVI consistently performs better than the traditional KLVI.
Convergence speed comparison.
We also carry out a comparison in terms of speed of convergence, focusing on PBBVI and -VI. Our results indicate that the smaller variance of the reparameterization gradient in PBBVI leads to faster convergence of the optimization algorithm.
We train the GP classifier from Eqs. 22-23 on the Sonar UCI data set using a constant learning rate. Figure 4 (a) shows the test log-likelihood under the posterior mean as a function of training iterations. We split the data set into equally sized training, validation, and test sets. We then tune the learning rate and the number of Monte Carlo samples per gradient step to obtain optimal performance on the validation set after optimizing the -VI bound with a fixed budget of random samples. We use here; smaller values of (i.e., stronger mass-covering effect) leads to even slower convergence. We then optimize the PBBVI lower bound with the same learning rate and number of Monte Carlo samples. The final test error rate is
(the data set has binary labels and is approximately balanced). Although the hyperparameters are tuned for-VI, the proposed PBBVI converges an order of magnitude faster (Figure 4 (a)).
Figure 4 (b) provides more insight in the scaling of the gradient variance. Here, we fit GP regression models on synthetically generated data by maximizing the PBBVI lower bound and the -VI lower bound with . We generate a separate synthetic data set for each by drawing random data points around a sinusoidal curve. For each , we fit a one-dimensional GP regression with PBBVI and -VI, respectively, using the same data set for both methods. The variational distribution is a fully factorized Gaussian with latent variables. After convergence, we estimate the sampling variance of the gradient of each lower bound with respect to the posterior mean. We calculate the empirical variance of the gradient based on samples from , and we average over the coordinates. Figure 4 shows the average sampling variance as a function of on a logarithmic scale. The variance of the gradient of the -VI bound grows exponentially in the number of latent variables. By contrast, we find only algebraic growth for PBBVI.
4.4 Variational Autoencoder
We experiment on Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), and we compare the PBBVI and the KLVI bound in terms of predictive likelihoods on held-out data . Autoencoders compress unlabeled training data into low-dimensional representations by fitting it to an encoder-decoder model that maps the data to itself. These models are prone to learning the identity function when the hyperparameters are not carefully tuned, or when the network is too expressive, especially for a moderately sized training set. VAEs are designed to partially avoid this problem by estimating the uncertainty that is associated with each data point in the latent space. It is therefore important that the inference method does not underestimate posterior variances. We show that, for small data sets, training a VAE by maximizing the PBBVI lower bound leads to higher predictive likelihoods than maximizing the KLVI lower bound.
We train the VAE on the MNIST data set of handwritten digits . We build on the publicly available implementation by  and we also use the same architecture and hyperparamters, with stochastic layers and samples from the variational distribution per gradient step. The model has latent units in the first stochastic layer and latent units in the second stochastic layer.
The VAE model factorizes over all data points. We train it by stochastically maximizing the sum of the PBBVI lower bounds for all data points using a minibatch size of . The VAE amortizes the gradient signal across data points by training inference networks. The inference networks express the mean and variance of the variational distribution as a function of the data point. We add an additional inference network that learns the mapping from a data point to the reference energy . Here, we use a network with four fully connected hidden layers of , , , and units, respectively.
training images. To test our approach on smaller-scale data where Bayesian uncertainty matters more, we evaluate the test likelihood after training the model on randomly sampled fractions of the training set. We use the same training schedules as in the publicly available implementation, keeping the total number of training iterations independent of the size of the training set. Different to the original implementation, we shuffle the training set before each training epoch as this turns out to increase the performance for both our method and the baseline.
Figure 5 shows the predictive log-likelihood of the whole test set, where the VAE is trained on random subsets of different sizes of the training set. We use the same subset to train with PBBVI and KLVI for each training set size. PBBVI leads to a higher predictive likelihood than traditional KLVI on subsets of the data. We explain this finding with our observation that the variational distributions obtained from PBBVI capture more of the posterior variance. As the size of the training set grows—and the posterior uncertainty decreases—the performance of KLVI catches up with PBBVI.
As a potential explanation why PBBVI converges to the KLVI result for large training sets, we note that at the optimal variational distribution and reference energy (see Section 3.4). If becomes a symmetric random variable (such as a Gaussian) in the limit of a large training set, then this implies that , and PBBVI with reduces to KLVI for large training sets.
5 Related work
Our approach is related to BBVI, VI with generalized divergences, and variational perturbation theory. We thus briefly discuss related work in these three directions.
Black box variational inference (BBVI).
BBVI has already been addressed in the introduction [40, 16, 37, 34, 39]; it enables variational inference for many models [35, 2, 3, 9, 20, 26, 23]. Recent developments include variance reduction and improvements in reparameterization and amortization [17, 45, 36, 24, 39, 6, 25] which are all compatible with our approach. Our work builds upon BBVI in that BBVI makes a large class of new divergence measures between the posterior and the approximating distribution tractable. Depending on the divergence measure, BBVI may suffer from high-variance stochastic gradients. This is a practical problem that we address in this paper.
Generalized divergences measures.
Our work connects to generalized information-theoretic divergences .  introduced a broad class of divergences for variational inference, including -divergences. Most of these divergences have been intractable in large-scale applications until the advent of BBVI. In this context, -divergences were first suggested by  for local divergence minimization, and later for global minimization by  and . As we show in this paper, -divergences have the disadvantage of inducing high-variance gradients, since the ratio between posterior and variational distribution enters the bound polynomially instead of logarithmically. In contrast, our approach leads to a more stable inference scheme in high dimensions.
Variational perturbation theory.
Perturbation theory refers to methods that aim to truncate a typically divergent power series to a finite series. In machine learning, these approaches have been addressed from an information-theoretic perspective by [42, 43]. Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) equations  are a form of second-order perturbation theory. They were originally developed in statistical physics to include perturbative corrections to the mean-field solution of Ising models. They have been adopted into Bayesian inference in  and were advanced by many authors [15, 31, 30, 28]. In variational inference, perturbation theory yields extra terms to the mean-field variational objective which are difficult to calculate analytically. This may be a reason why the methods discussed are not widely adopted by practitioners. In this paper, we emphasize the ease of including perturbative corrections in a black box variational inference framework. Furthermore, in contrast to earlier formulations, our approach yields a strict lower bound to the marginal likelihood which can be conveniently optimized. Our approach is different from the traditional variational perturbation formulation [18, 41], which generally does not result in a bound.
We first presented a view on black box variational inference as a form of biased importance sampling, where we can trade off bias versus variance by the choice of divergence. Bias refers to the deviation of the bound from the true marginal likelihood, and variance refers to its reparameterization gradient estimator. We then proposed a family of new variational bounds that connect to variational perturbation theory, and which include corrections to the standard Kullback-Leibler bound. Our proposed PBBVI bound is an asymptotic series to the true marginal likelihood for large order of the perturbative expansion, and we showed both theoretically and experimentally that it has lower-variance reparameterization gradients compared to -VI. In order to scale up our method to massive data sets, future work will explore stochastic versions of PBBVI. Since the PBBVI bound contains interaction terms between all data points, breaking it up into mini-batches is not straightforward. Besides, while our experiments used a fixed perturbative order of , it could be beneficial to increase the perturbative order at some point during the training cycle once an empirical estimate of the gradient variance drops below a certain threshold. It would also be interesting to investigate a -independent formulation of PBBVI using Russian roulette estimates . Furthermore, the PBBVI and -bounds can also be combined, such that PBBVI further approximates -VI. This could lead to promising results on large data sets where traditional -VI is hard to optimize due to its variance, and traditional PBBVI converges to KLVI. As a final remark, a tighter variational bound is not guaranteed to always result in a better posterior approximation since the variational family limits the quality of the solution. However, in the context of variational EM, where one performs gradient-based hyperparameter optimization on the log marginal likelihood, our bound gives more reliable results since higher orders of can be assumed to approximate the marginal likelihood better.
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