The unfairness of the UEFA Euro 2020 qualifying

05/08/2019 ∙ by László Csató, et al. ∙ 0 ∙

The qualification for the UEFA European Championship 2020 is strongly connected to the inaugural season 2018-19 of the UEFA Nations League. The latter competition divides the 55 UEFA national teams into four leagues, and the qualifying play-offs guarantee at least one place in the final tournament for the best four teams of each league. Consequently, we found that being a top team in the lowest-ranked League D can substantially increase the probability of qualification compared to being a bottom team in League C because the probability of direct qualification is negligible for the teams competing for these places. It may undermine credibility: the current rules may punish stronger performance in recent matches, and create incentives for strategic manipulation. UEFA is encouraged to reform the format of qualifications in order to minimise the unfair advantage enjoyed by the top teams of UEFA Nations League D.

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