The Reduced Dynamic Chain Event Graph

11/21/2018
by   Aditi Shenvi, et al.
0

In this paper we introduce a new class of probabilistic graphical models called the Reduced Dynamic Chain Event Graph (RDCEG) which is a novel mixture of a Chain Event Graph (CEG) and a semi-Markov process (SMP). It has been demonstrated that many real-world scenarios, particularly in the domain of public health and security, can be modelled as an unfolding of events in the life histories of individuals. Our interest not only lies in the future trajectories of an individual with a specified history and set of characteristics but also in the timescale associated with these developments. Such information is critical in developing suitable interventions and informs the prioritisation of policy decisions. The RDCEG was born out of the need for such a model. It is a coloured graph which inherits useful properties like fast conjugate model selection, conditional independence interrogations and a support for causal interventions from the family of probabilistic graphical models. Its novelty lies in its underlying semi-Markov structure which offers the flexibility of the holding time at each state being any arbitrary distribution. We demonstrate this new decision support system with a simulated intervention to reduce falls in the elderly.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
11/07/2022

Beyond Conjugacy for Chain Event Graph Model Selection

Chain event graphs are a family of probabilistic graphical models that g...
research
08/17/2018

An N Time-Slice Dynamic Chain Event Graph

The Dynamic Chain Event Graph (DCEG) is able to depict many classes of d...
research
11/21/2022

cegpy: Modelling with Chain Event Graphs in Python

Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a recent family of probabilistic graphical...
research
09/14/2022

Identifying Causal Effects on a Chain Event Graph for Remedial Interventions

To efficiently analyse system reliability, graphical tools such as fault...
research
10/03/2021

Hierarchical Causal Analysis of Natural Languages on a Chain Event Graph

Various graphical models are widely used in reliability to provide a qua...
research
11/11/2018

Unifying Gaussian LWF and AMP Chain Graphs to Model Interference

An intervention may have an effect on units other than those to which th...
research
02/24/2022

Bayesian Model Averaging of Chain Event Graphs for Robust Explanatory Modelling

Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are a widely applicable class of probabilistic...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset