The Hot Hand in Actual Game Situations

06/25/2020
by   Konstantinos Pelechrinis, et al.
0

Miller and Sanjurjo [8] showed that the majority of the hot hand studies were subject to streak selection bias, leading to an underestimation of any effect present. In this study, we extend the elegant permutation test recommended by Miller and Sanjurjo [8] to in-game situations, where consecutive shots of a player are not identical. We do so by developing a shot make probability model trained with optical tracking data from SportVU, and resampling the underlying non homogeneous Bernoulli process for the shots taken by a player to build the distribution under the null hypothesis (i.e., independence from the result of previous shots). Our results point to the presence of a sizable hot hand effect within game settings.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
10/29/2020

The Hot Hand and Its Effect on the NBA

This paper aims to revisit and expand upon previous work on the "hot han...
research
11/09/2020

Continuous-time state-space modelling of the hot hand in basketball

We investigate the hot hand phenomenon using data on 110,513 free throws...
research
09/12/2020

Hot Racquet or Not? An Exploration of Momentum in Grand Slam Tennis Matches

The presence of momentum in sports, where the outcome of a previous even...
research
08/04/2019

Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives in Random Bernoulli Sequences

We study a class of tests of the randomness of Bernoulli sequences and t...
research
02/19/2021

Do NHL goalies get hot in the playoffs? A multilevel logistic regression analysis

The hot-hand theory posits that an athlete who has performed well in the...
research
01/13/2018

Heating Up in NBA Free Throw Shooting

I demonstrate that repetition heats players up, while interruption cools...
research
08/04/2019

Detecting the Hot Hand: Tests of Randomness Against Streaky Alternatives in Bernoulli Sequences

We consider the problem of testing for randomness against streaky altern...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset