Technical Analysis and Discrete False Discovery Rate: Evidence from MSCI Indices

11/16/2018

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by   Georgios Sermpinis, et al.

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This article introduces a discrete false discovery rate (DFRD+/-) controlling method for data snooping testing. We investigate with DFRD+/- the performance of dynamic portfolios constructed upon over 21,000 technical trading rules on 12 categorical and country-specific markets over the study period 2004-2017. The profitability, robustness and persistence of the technical rules are examined. We note that technical analysis has still short-term value in advanced, emerging and frontier markets. A cross-validation exercise highlights the importance of frequent rebalancing and the variability of profitability in trading with technical analysis.