Statistics cannot prove that the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic

08/22/2022

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by   Dietrich Stoyan, et al.

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We criticize a statistical proof of the hypothesis that the Huanan seafood wholesale market was the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are three points in the proof we consider critically: (1) The Huanan seafood wholesale market is not a data-driven location. (2) The assumption that a centroid of early case locations or another simply constructed point is the origin of an epidemic is not proved. (3) A Monte Carlo test used to prove that no other location than the seafood market can be the origin is not correct. Hence, the question of the origin of the pandemic is still open.