Staring Down the Digital Fulda Gap Path Dependency as a Cyber Defense Vulnerability

12/06/2021
by   Jan Kallberg, et al.
0

Academia, homeland security, defense, and media have accepted the perception that critical infrastructure in a future cyber war cyber conflict is the main gateway for a massive cyber assault on the U.S. The question is not if the assumption is correct or not, the question is instead of how did we arrive at that assumption. The cyber paradigm considers critical infrastructure the primary attack vector for future cyber conflicts. The national vulnerability embedded in critical infrastructure is given a position in the cyber discourse as close to an unquestionable truth as a natural law. The American reaction to Sept. 11, and any attack on U.S. soil, hint to an adversary that attacking critical infrastructure to create hardship for the population could work contrary to the intended softening of the will to resist foreign influence. It is more likely that attacks that affect the general population instead strengthen the will to resist and fight, similar to the British reaction to the German bombing campaign Blitzen in 1940. We cannot rule out attacks that affect the general population, but there are not enough adversarial offensive capabilities to attack all 16 critical infrastructure sectors and gain strategic momentum. An adversary has limited cyberattack capabilities and needs to prioritize cyber targets that are aligned with the overall strategy. Logically, an adversary will focus their OCO on operations that has national security implications and support their military operations by denying, degrading, and confusing the U.S. information environment and U.S. cyber assets.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

07/16/2020

Revisiting Strategic Cyberwar Theory Reaching Decisive Strategic Outcome

Each strategy has a foundation, an overarching way of explaining why thi...
05/06/2022

Using cyber threat intelligence to support adversary understanding applied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict

In military organizations, Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) supports cybe...
08/18/2018

Supremacy by Accelerated Warfare through the Comprehension Barrier and Beyond: Reaching the Zero Domain and Cyberspace Singularity

It is questionable and even unlikely that cyber supremacy could be reach...
04/26/2018

From product recommendation to cyber-attack prediction: Generating attack graphs and predicting future attacks

Modern information society depends on reliable functionality of informat...
01/29/2021

EphemeriShield – defence against cyber-antisatellite weapons

Satellites, are both crucial and, despite common misbelieve, very fragil...
03/05/2022

Prediction of terrorism pattern accompanied by cyber-terrorism and the development direction of corresponding legal systems

As the information and communication system has become an essential elem...
06/19/2022

Cybersecurity Law: Legal Jurisdiction and Authority

Cybersecurity threats affect all aspects of society; critical infrastruc...