Space-time clustering of flash floods in a changing climate (China, 1950-2015)
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The persistence over space and time of flash flood disasters – flash floods that have caused either economical or life losses, or both – is a diagnostic measure of areas subjected to hydrological risk. The concept of persistence can be assessed via clustering analyses, performed here to analyse the national inventory of flash floods disasters in China occurred in the period 1950-2015. Specifically, we investigated the spatio-temporal pattern distribution of the flash floods and their clustering behavior by using both global and local methods: the first, based on the Ripley's K-function, and the second on scan statistics. As a result, we could visualize patterns of aggregated events, estimate the cluster duration and make assumptions about their evolution over time, also with respect precipitations trend. Due to the large spatial (the whole Chinese territory) and temporal scale of the dataset (66 years), we were able to capture whether certain clusters gather in specific locations and times, but also whether their magnitude tends to increase or decrease. Overall, the eastern regions in China are much more subjected to flash floods compared to the rest of the country. Detected clusters revealed that these phenomena predominantly occur between July and October, a period coinciding with the wet season in China. The number of detected clusters increases with time, but the associated duration drastically decreases in the recent period. This may indicate a change towards triggering mechanisms which are typical of short-duration extreme rainfall events. Finally, being flash floods directly linked to precipitation and their extreme realization, we indirectly assessed whether the magnitude of the trigger itself has also varied through space and time, enabling considerations in the context of climatic changes.
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