Simulation-Driven COVID-19 Epidemiological Modeling with Social Media

06/22/2021
by   Jose Storopoli, et al.
0

Modern Bayesian approaches and workflows emphasize in how simulation is important in the context of model developing. Simulation can help researchers understand how the model behaves in a controlled setting and can be used to stress the model in different ways before it is exposed to any real data. This improved understanding could be beneficial in epidemiological models, specially when dealing with COVID-19. Unfortunately, few researchers perform any simulations. We present a simulation algorithm that implements a simple agent-based model for disease transmission that works with a standard compartment epidemiological model for COVID-19. Our algorithm can be applied in different parameterizations to reflect several plausible epidemic scenarios. Additionally, we also model how social media information in the form of daily symptom mentions can be incorporate into COVID-19 epidemiological models. We test our social media COVID-19 model with two experiments. The first using simulated data from our agent-based simulation algorithm and the second with real data using a machine learning tweet classifier to identify tweets that mention symptoms from noise. Our results shows how a COVID-19 model can be (1) used to incorporate social media data and (2) assessed and evaluated with simulated and real data.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
04/17/2020

NAIST COVID: Multilingual COVID-19 Twitter and Weibo Dataset

Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the late 20...
research
11/30/2020

CovidExplorer: A Multi-faceted AI-based Search and Visualization Engine for COVID-19 Information

The entire world is engulfed in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic,...
research
04/10/2023

Examining Temporalities on Stance Detection Towards COVID-19 Vaccination

Previous studies have highlighted the importance of vaccination as an ef...
research
04/18/2020

Monitoring the spread of COVID-19 by estimating reproduction numbers over time

To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constan...
research
02/18/2022

COVID-19 Submodel for the NC MInD ABM Overview, Design Concepts, and Details Protocol

This Overview, Design Concepts, and Details (ODD) Protocol is an ODD ext...
research
05/12/2023

Detecting Coordinated Inauthentic Behavior in Likes on Social Media: Proof of Concept

Coordinated inauthentic behavior is used as a tool on social media to sh...
research
04/22/2023

A Semi-Supervised Framework for Misinformation Detection

The spread of misinformation in social media outlets has become a preval...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset