Seasonal association between viral etiologies of hospitalized acute lower respiratory infections and meteorological factors in China
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Background: Acute lower respiratory infections present pronounced seasonal patterns. Meteorological factors are determinant factors for the seasonality of most viruses. Our aim is to identify the dominant meteorological factors and to model their effects on common respiratory viruses in different regions of China.Methods: We analyzed monthly respiratory virus data from 81 sentinel hospitals in 22 provinces in mainland China from 2009 to 2013. Meteorological data of the same period were collected. Geographical detector was used to quantify the explanatory power of each meteorological factor and their interaction effects on respiratory viruses.Findings: Altogether, seven viruses from 28369 hospitalized ALRI patients were tested. Overall, 10387 cases(36.6 were positive for at least one virus, among them were RSV (32 PIV(17 annual peak in the north and semi-annual peak in the south. PIV and hBoV had higher positive rates in spring-summer. ADV and hCoV exhibited no clear annual seasonality, hMPV had annual peak in winter-spring. Temperature, atmospheric pressure, vapor pressure and rainfall had most explanatory power on most viruses, relative humidity was only dominant for most viruses in the north. Hours of sunlight had significant explanations for RSV and FLU in the north, but for most viruses in the south. Wind speed had dominant explanatory power for hCoV. Besides, the interacted explanations of any two of the paired factors got enhanced.Conclusions: Our results described the different explanation power of different meteorological variables on different viruses in different major climate regions of China. The spatiotemporal heterogeneity of most viruses was also detected in this study. These findings may be helpful to guide government planning and facilitate the development of future vaccine strategies.
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