DeepAI AI Chat
Log In Sign Up

Schedule-based Analysis of Transmission Risk in Public Transportation Systems

02/17/2022
by   Jiali Zhou, et al.
0

Airborne diseases, including COVID-19, raise the question of transmission risk in public transportation systems. However, quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of transmission risk mitigation methods in public transportation is lacking. The paper develops a transmission risk modeling framework based on the Wells-Riley model using as inputs transit operating characteristics, schedule, Origin-Destination (OD) demand, and virus characteristics. The model is sensitive to various factors that operators can control, as well as external factors that may be subject of broader policy decisions (e.g. mask wearing). The model is utilized to assess transmission risk as a function of OD flows, planned operations, and factors such as mask-wearing, ventilation, and infection rates. Using actual data from the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) Red Line, the paper explores the transmission risk under different infection rate scenarios, both in magnitude and spatial characteristics. The paper assesses the combined impact from viral load related factors and passenger load factors. Increasing frequency can mitigate transmission risk, but cannot fully compensate for increases in infection rates. Imbalanced passenger distribution on different cars of a train is shown to increase the overall system-wide infection probability. Spatial infection rate patterns should also be taken into account during policymaking as it is shown to impact transmission risk. For lines with branches, demand distribution among the branches is important and headway allocation adjustment among branches to balance the load on trains to different branches can help reduce risk.

READ FULL TEXT

page 12

page 15

page 19

page 20

page 21

01/13/2023

New Approach to Policy Effectiveness for Covid-19 and Factors Influence Policy Effectiveness

This study compared the effectiveness of COVID-19 control policies, incl...
10/12/2022

A novel approach to preventing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in classrooms: An OpenFOAM based CFD Study

The education sector has suffered a catastrophic setback due to ongoing ...
11/08/2020

Inference under Superspreading: Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Germany

Superspreading complicates the study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. I propo...
05/23/2020

A key question to business owners facing SARS-CoV-2 pandemics: When to reopen my business?

The sudden onset of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has resulted i...