ROC movies – a new generalization to a popular classic
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Throughout science and technology, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and associated area under the curve (AUC) measures constitute powerful tools for assessing the predictive abilities of features, markers and tests in binary classification problems. Despite its immense popularity, ROC analysis has been subject to a fundamental restriction, in that it applies to dichotomous (yes or no) outcomes only. We introduce ROC movies and universal ROC (UROC) curves that apply to just any ordinal or real-valued outcome, along with a new, asymmetric coefficient of predictive ability (CPA) measure. CPA equals the area under the UROC curve and admits appealing interpretations in terms of probabilities and rank based covariances. ROC movies, UROC curves and CPA nest and generalize the classical ROC curve and AUC, and are bound to supersede them in a wealth of applications.
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