Roadmap to a Roadmap: How Could We Tell When AGI is a 'Manhattan Project' Away?

by   John-Clark Levin, et al.

This paper argues that at a certain point in research toward AGI, the problem may become well-enough theorized that a clear roadmap exists for achieving it, such that a Manhattan Project-like effort could greatly shorten the time to completion. If state actors perceive that this threshold has been crossed, their incentives around openness and international cooperation may shift rather suddenly, with serious implications for AI risks and the stability of international AI governance regimes. The paper characterizes how such a 'runway' period would be qualitatively different from preceding stages of AI research, and accordingly proposes a research program aimed at assessing how close the field of AI is to such a threshold - that is, it calls for the formulation of a 'roadmap to the roadmap.'



There are no comments yet.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Regulating Artificial Intelligence: Proposal for a Global Solution

With increasing ubiquity of artificial intelligence (AI) in modern socie...

AI Ethics for Systemic Issues: A Structural Approach

The debate on AI ethics largely focuses on technical improvements and st...

The tension between openness and prudence in AI research

This paper explores the tension between openness and prudence in AI rese...

Internationalizing AI: Evolution and Impact of Distance Factors

International collaboration has become imperative in the field of AI. Ho...

The State of AI Ethics Report (October 2020)

The 2nd edition of the Montreal AI Ethics Institute's The State of AI Et...

Towards Automating the AI Operations Lifecycle

Today's AI deployments often require significant human involvement and s...

Special Drawing Rights in a New Decentralized Century

Unfulfilled expectations from macro-economic initiatives during the Grea...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.