Real-Time Fixed-Target Statistical Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

01/25/2021

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by   Francis X. Diebold, et al.

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We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. The real-time forecasting begins in early June and proceeds through late September. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Among other things, our visualizations may provide useful windows for assessing the agreement between dynamical climate models and observational data.