Randomization Bias in Field Trials to Evaluate Targeting Methods
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This paper studies the evaluation of methods for targeting the allocation of limited resources to a high-risk subpopulation. We consider a randomized controlled trial to measure the difference in efficiency between two targeting methods and show that it is biased. An alternative, survey-based design is shown to be unbiased. Both designs are simulated for the evaluation of a policy to target food safety inspections using a predictive model. Our work anticipates further developments in economics that will be important as predictive modeling becomes an increasingly common policy tool.
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