Quantifying Gerrymandering in North Carolina

01/10/2018
by   Gregory Herschlag, et al.
0

Using an ensemble of redistricting plans, we evaluate whether a given political districting faithfully represents the geo-political landscape. Redistricting plans are sampled by a Monte Carlo algorithm from a probability distribution that adheres to realistic and non-partisan criteria. Using the sampled redistricting plans and historical voting data, we produce an ensemble of elections that reveal geo-political structure within the state. We showcase our methods on the two most recent districtings of NC for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a plan drawn by a bipartisan redistricting panel. We find the two state enacted plans are highly atypical outliers whereas the bipartisan plan accurately represents the ensemble both in partisan outcome and in the fine scale structure of district-level results.

READ FULL TEXT

page 6

page 13

page 15

page 24

page 25

research
03/03/2021

First steps towards quantifying district compactness in the ReCom sampling method

Ensemble analysis has become an important tool for analyzing and quantif...
research
11/11/2020

Colorado in Context: Congressional Redistricting and Competing Fairness Criteria in Colorado

In this paper, we apply techniques of ensemble analysis to understand th...
research
03/13/2022

Mathematically Quantifying Gerrymandering and the Non-responsiveness of the 2021 Georgia Congressional Districting Plan

While gerrymandering has been widely suspected in Georgia for years, it ...
research
05/26/2020

A Computational Approach to Measuring Vote Elasticity and Competitiveness

The recent wave of attention to partisan gerrymandering has come with a ...
research
08/28/2022

How Segregation Patterns Affect the Availability of Fair District Plans

We create 4200 synthetic cities which vary in percent minority populatio...
research
08/18/2022

Untangling the Dueling Expert Witnesses: Comparing Ensemble Methods in Pennsylvania's Redistricting Plans

Ensembles of random legislative districts are a valuable tool for assess...
research
03/03/2018

Long-Term Implications of the Revenue Transfer Methodology in the Affordable Care Act

The Affordable Care Act introduced a revenue transfer formula that requi...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset