Probability and expected frequency of breakthroughs - a robust method of research assessment based on the double rank property of citation distributions

by   Alonso Rodriguez-Navarro, et al.

In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation analyses can be used to estimate the part played by countries and institutions in the global progress of knowledge, but a concrete method of estimation is far from evident. The challenge arises because publications that report real progress of knowledge form an extremely low proportion of all publications; in most countries and institutions such contributions appear less than once per year. One way to overcome this difficulty is to calculate probabilities instead of counting the rare events on which scientific progress is based. This study reviews and summarizes several recent publications, and adds new results that demonstrate that the citation distribution of normal publications allows the probability of the infrequent events that support the progress of knowledge to be calculated.



page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Research assessment by percentile-based double rank analysis

In the double rank analysis of research publications, the local rank pos...

Contemporary Research Trends in Response Robotics

The multidisciplinary nature of response robotics has brought about a di...

Robust Archives Maximize Scientific Accessibility

We present a bibliographic analysis of Chandra, Hubble, and Spitzer publ...

Scientific wealth and inequality within nations

We show that the greater the scientific wealth of a nation, the more lik...

Interpreting the outcomes of research assessments: a geometrical approach

Research evaluations and comparison of the assessments of academic insti...

A Quantitative History of A.I. Research in the United States and China

Motivated by recent interest in the status and consequences of competiti...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.