Prescriptive maintenance with causal machine learning

06/03/2022
by   Toon Vanderschueren, et al.
21

Machine maintenance is a challenging operational problem, where the goal is to plan sufficient preventive maintenance to avoid machine failures and overhauls. Maintenance is often imperfect in reality and does not make the asset as good as new. Although a variety of imperfect maintenance policies have been proposed in the literature, these rely on strong assumptions regarding the effect of maintenance on the machine's condition, assuming the effect is (1) deterministic or governed by a known probability distribution, and (2) machine-independent. This work proposes to relax both assumptions by learning the effect of maintenance conditional on a machine's characteristics from observational data on similar machines using existing methodologies for causal inference. By predicting the maintenance effect, we can estimate the number of overhauls and failures for different levels of maintenance and, consequently, optimize the preventive maintenance frequency to minimize the total estimated cost. We validate our proposed approach using real-life data on more than 4,000 maintenance contracts from an industrial partner. Empirical results show that our novel, causal approach accurately predicts the maintenance effect and results in individualized maintenance schedules that are more accurate and cost-effective than supervised or non-individualized approaches.

READ FULL TEXT

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

research
04/17/2018

Predicting Future Machine Failure from Machine State Using Logistic Regression

Accurately predicting machine failures in advance can decrease maintenan...
research
11/29/2021

A multi-state Markov model to separate the latent deterioration process from the maintenance effect

Maintenance optimization for naval ship equipment is essential in terms ...
research
05/19/2022

Predictive Maintenance using Machine Learning

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is a concept, which is implemented to effec...
research
07/02/2020

Pricing service maintenance contracts using predictive analytics

As more manufacturers shift their focus from selling products to end sol...
research
06/23/2022

Human-in-the-Loop Large-Scale Predictive Maintenance of Workstations

Predictive maintenance (PdM) is the task of scheduling maintenance opera...
research
04/21/2022

A two-level machine learning framework for predictive maintenance: comparison of learning formulations

Predicting incoming failures and scheduling maintenance based on sensors...
research
05/31/2021

Policies for the Dynamic Traveling Maintainer Problem with Alerts

Companies require modern capital assets such as wind turbines, trains an...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset