Predicting Covid-19 EMS Incidents from Daily Hospitalization Trends

03/19/2021
by   Ngoc Mai Tran, et al.
0

Introduction: The aim of our retrospective study was to quantify the impact of Covid-19 on the spatiotemporal distribution of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) demands in Travis County, Austin, Texas and propose a robust model to forecast Covid-19 EMS incidents in the short term to improve EMS performance. Methods: We analyzed the number of EMS calls and daily Covid-19 hospitalization in the Austin-Travis County area between January 1st, 2019 and December 31st, 2020. Change point detection was performed to identify critical dates marking changes in EMS call distributions and time series regression was applied for our prediction model. Results: Two critical dates mark the impact of Covid-19 on EMS calls: March 17th, when the daily number of Non-Pandemic EMS incidents dropped significantly, and May 13th, by which the daily number of EMS calls climbed back to 75 alone proves a powerful predictor of pandemic EMS calls, with an r^2 value equal to 0.85. Conclusion: The mean daily number of non-pandemic EMS demands was significantly less than the period prior to Covid-19 pandemic. The number of EMS calls for Covid-19 symptoms can be predicted from the daily new hospitalization of Covid-19 patients. In particular, for every 2.5 cases where EMS takes a Covid-19 patient to a hospital, 1 person is admitted.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 2

page 4

page 5

11/27/2021

Forecasting Daily COVID-19 Related Calls in VA Health Care System: Predictive Model Development

Background: COVID-19 has become a challenge worldwide and properly plann...
07/21/2020

The Ockham's razor applied to COVID-19 model fitting French data

This paper presents a data-based simple model for fitting the available ...
02/17/2021

Knowledge discovery from emergency ambulance dispatch during COVID-19: A case study of Nagoya City, Japan

Accurate forecasting of medical service requirements is an important big...
11/16/2020

Change point detection for COVID-19 excess deaths in Belgium

Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat ...
08/03/2020

COVID-19 mild cases determination from correlating COVID-line calls to reported cases

Background: One of the most challenging keys to understand COVID-19 evol...
09/15/2021

Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases, Using an Evolutionary Neural Architecture Search Approach

In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.