Power laws in the Roman Empire: a survival analysis

08/21/2020
by   Pedro L. Ramos, et al.
0

The Roman Empire shaped Western civilization, and many Roman principles are embodied in modern institutions. Although its political institutions proved both resilient and adaptable, allowing it to incorporate diverse populations, the Empire suffered from many internal conflicts. Indeed, most emperors died violently, from assassination, suicide, or in battle. These internal conflicts produced patterns in the length of time that can be identified by statistical analysis. In this paper, we study the underlying patterns associated with the reign of the Roman emperors by using statistical tools of survival data analysis. We consider all the 175 Roman emperors and propose a new power-law model with change points to predict the time-to-violent-death of the Roman emperors. This model encompasses data in the presence of censoring and long-term survivors, providing more accurate predictions than previous models. Our results show that power-law distributions can also occur in survival data, as verified in other data types from natural and artificial systems, reinforcing the ubiquity of power law distributions. The generality of our approach paves the way to further related investigations not only in other ancient civilizations but also in applications in engineering and medicine.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 10

10/21/2019

Statistical tests for the Pseudo-Lindley distribution and applications

The pseudo-Lindley distribution was introduced as a useful generalizatio...
05/04/2018

Power Law in Sparsified Deep Neural Networks

The power law has been observed in the degree distributions of many biol...
10/18/2018

Power-law distributions in geoscience revisited

The size or energy of diverse structures or phenomena in geoscience appe...
05/23/2021

Coupling Power Laws Offers a Powerful Method for Problems such as Biodiversity and COVID-19 Fatality Predictions

Power laws have been found to describe a wide variety of natural (physic...
05/27/2019

Power laws in code repositories: A skeptical approach

Software development as done using modern methodologies and source contr...
09/06/2021

EsmamDS: A more diverse exceptional survival model mining approach

A variety of works in the literature strive to uncover the factors assoc...
11/08/2018

Discovering Power Laws in Entity Length

This paper presents a discovery that the length of the entities follows ...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.