Post-selection Inference for Conformal Prediction: Trading off Coverage for Precision
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Conformal inference has played a pivotal role in providing uncertainty quantification for black-box ML prediction algorithms with finite sample guarantees. Traditionally, conformal prediction inference requires a data-independent specification of miscoverage level. In practical applications, one might want to update the miscoverage level after computing the prediction set. For example, in the context of binary classification, the analyst might start with a 95% prediction sets and see that most prediction sets contain all outcome classes. Prediction sets with both classes being undesirable, the analyst might desire to consider, say 80% prediction set. Construction of prediction sets that guarantee coverage with data-dependent miscoverage level can be considered as a post-selection inference problem. In this work, we develop uniform conformal inference with finite sample prediction guarantee with arbitrary data-dependent miscoverage levels using distribution-free confidence bands for distribution functions. This allows practitioners to trade freely coverage probability for the quality of the prediction set by any criterion of their choice (say size of prediction set) while maintaining the finite sample guarantees similar to traditional conformal inference.
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