Population stratification enables modeling effects of reopening policies on mortality and hospitalization rates

08/10/2020
by   Tongtong Huang, et al.
0

Objective: We study the influence of local reopening policies on the composition of the infectious population and their impact on future hospitalization and mortality rates. Materials and Methods: We collected datasets of daily reported hospitalization and cumulative morality of COVID 19 in Houston, Texas, from May 1, 2020 until June 29, 2020. These datasets are from multiple sources (USA FACTS, Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council COVID 19 report, TMC daily news, and New York Times county level mortality reporting). Our model, risk stratified SIR HCD uses separate variables to model the dynamics of local contact (e.g., work from home) and high contact (e.g., work on site) subpopulations while sharing parameters to control their respective R_0(t) over time. Results: We evaluated our models forecasting performance in Harris County, TX (the most populated county in the Greater Houston area) during the Phase I and Phase II reopening. Not only did our model outperform other competing models, it also supports counterfactual analysis to simulate the impact of future policies in a local setting, which is unique among existing approaches. Discussion: Local mortality and hospitalization are significantly impacted by quarantine and reopening policies. No existing model has directly accounted for the effect of these policies on local trends in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in an explicit and explainable manner. Our work is an attempt to close this important technical gap to support decision making. Conclusion: Despite several limitations, we think it is a timely effort to rethink about how to best model the dynamics of pandemics under the influence of reopening policies.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 16

11/19/2021

Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 shock on a stochastic multi-population mortality model

We aim to assess the impact of a pandemic data point on the calibration ...
07/28/2020

Correlation between COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates in Japan and local population density, temperature and absolute humidity

This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pa...
05/26/2020

Modeling the Dynamics of the COVID-19 Population in Australia: A Probabilistic Analysis

The novel Corona Virus COVID-19 arrived on Australian shores around 25 J...
01/17/2022

A framework for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 related deaths underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality b...
03/01/2018

Mortality data reliability in an internal model

In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on...
12/06/2019

Influenza Modeling Based on Massive Feature Engineering and International Flow Deconvolution

In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors drivi...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.