Policy Optimization for Personalized Interventions in Behavioral Health
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Problem definition: Behavioral health interventions, delivered through digital platforms, have the potential to significantly improve health outcomes, through education, motivation, reminders, and outreach. We study the problem of optimizing personalized interventions for patients to maximize some long-term outcome, in a setting where interventions are costly and capacity-constrained. Methodology/results: This paper provides a model-free approach to solving this problem. We find that generic model-free approaches from the reinforcement learning literature are too data intensive for healthcare applications, while simpler bandit approaches make progress at the expense of ignoring long-term patient dynamics. We present a new algorithm we dub DecompPI that approximates one step of policy iteration. Implementing DecompPI simply consists of a prediction task from offline data, alleviating the need for online experimentation. Theoretically, we show that under a natural set of structural assumptions on patient dynamics, DecompPI surprisingly recovers at least 1/2 of the improvement possible between a naive baseline policy and the optimal policy. At the same time, DecompPI is both robust to estimation errors and interpretable. Through an empirical case study on a mobile health platform for improving treatment adherence for tuberculosis, we find that DecompPI can provide the same efficacy as the status quo with approximately half the capacity of interventions. Managerial implications: DecompPI is general and is easily implementable for organizations aiming to improve long-term behavior through targeted interventions. Our case study suggests that the platform's costs of deploying interventions can potentially be cut by 50 scale up the system in a cost-efficient fashion.
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