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Partisan Lean of States: Electoral College and Popular Vote

05/11/2019

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by Andrey Sarantsev, et al.

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We compare federal election results for each state versus the USA each second year 1992-2008 to model partisan lean of each state and its dependence on the nationwide popular vote. For each state, we model both its current partisan lean and its rate of change, as well as sensitivity of the nationwide popular vote. We apply this to simulate the Electoral College outcome. Taking even popular vote between Democrats and Republicans, we find the probability of winning Electoral College, and whether it is biased towards either party. We use both classical (frequentist) and Bayesian approaches.

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