Omnivision forecasting: combining satellite observations with sky images for improved intra-hour solar energy predictions

06/07/2022

∙

Integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into electric grids in large proportions is challenging. A well-established approach aimed at addressing this difficulty involves the anticipation of the upcoming energy supply variability to adapt the response of the grid. In solar energy, short-term changes in electricity production caused by occluding clouds can be predicted at different time scales from all-sky cameras (up to 30-min ahead) and satellite observations (up to 6h ahead). In this study, we integrate these two complementary points of view on the cloud cover in a single machine learning framework to improve intra-hour (up to 60-min ahead) irradiance forecasting. Both deterministic and probabilistic predictions are evaluated in different weather conditions (clear-sky, cloudy, overcast) and with different input configurations (sky images, satellite observations and/or past irradiance values). Our results show that the hybrid model benefits predictions in clear-sky conditions and improves longer-term forecasting. This study lays the groundwork for future novel approaches of combining sky images and satellite observations in a single learning framework to advance solar nowcasting.

READ FULL TEXT

Omnivision forecasting: combining satellite observations with sky images for improved intra-hour solar energy predictions

Convolutional Neural Networks applied to sky images for short-term solar irradiance forecasting

Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images

Review of Kernel Learning for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting with Infrared Sky Images and Cloud Dynamic Feature Extraction

A deep learning approach to solar-irradiance forecasting in sky-videos

A Moment in the Sun: Solar Nowcasting from Multispectral Satellite Data using Self-Supervised Learning

Benchmarking of Deep Learning Irradiance Forecasting Models from Sky Images – an in-depth Analysis

Next generation particle precipitation: Mesoscale prediction through machine learning (a case study and framework for progress)

Omnivision forecasting: combining satellite observations with sky images for improved intra-hour solar energy predictions

Related Research

Convolutional Neural Networks applied to sky images for short-term solar irradiance forecasting

Intra-day solar irradiation forecast using RLS filters and satellite images

Review of Kernel Learning for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting with Infrared Sky Images and Cloud Dynamic Feature Extraction

A deep learning approach to solar-irradiance forecasting in sky-videos

A Moment in the Sun: Solar Nowcasting from Multispectral Satellite Data using Self-Supervised Learning

Benchmarking of Deep Learning Irradiance Forecasting Models from Sky Images – an in-depth Analysis

Next generation particle precipitation: Mesoscale prediction through machine learning (a case study and framework for progress)