DeepAI AI Chat
Log In Sign Up

Network Modelling of Criminal Collaborations with Dynamic Bayesian Steady Evolutions

by   F. O. Bunnin, et al.

The threat status and criminal collaborations of potential terrorists are hidden but give rise to observable behaviours and communications. Terrorists, when acting in concert, need to communicate to organise their plots. The authorities utilise such observable behaviour and communication data to inform their investigations and policing. We present a dynamic latent network model that integrates real-time communications data with prior knowledge on individuals. This model estimates and predicts the latent strength of criminal collaboration between individuals to assist in the identification of potential cells and the measurement of their threat levels. We demonstrate how, by assuming certain plausible conditional independences across the measurements associated with this population, the network model can be combined with models of individual suspects to provide fast transparent algorithms to predict group attacks. The methods are illustrated using a simulated example involving the threat posed by a cell suspected of plotting an attack.


page 22

page 28


A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Criminal Investigations

Potential violent criminals will often need to go through a sequence of ...

A Novel Framework for Threat Analysis of Machine Learning-based Smart Healthcare Systems

Smart healthcare systems (SHSs) are providing fast and efficient disease...

LogKernel A Threat Hunting Approach Based on Behaviour Provenance Graph and Graph Kernel Clustering

Cyber threat hunting is a proactive search process for hidden threats in...

Towards Dynamic Threat Modelling in 5G Core Networks Based on MITRE ATT CK

This article discusses how the gap between early 5G network threat asses...

Reducing complexity and unidentifiability when modelling human atrial cells

Mathematical models of a cellular action potential in cardiac modelling ...

Are spoofs from latent fingerprints a real threat for the best state-of-art liveness detectors?

We investigated the threat level of realistic attacks using latent finge...

Identification of Metallic Objects using Spectral MPT Signatures: Object Characterisation and Invariants

The early detection of terrorist threats, such as guns and knives, throu...