Nesting Probabilistic Programs
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We formalize the notion of nesting probabilistic programming queries and investigate the resulting statistical implications. We demonstrate that query nesting allows the definition of models which could not otherwise be expressed, such as those involving agents reasoning about other agents, but that existing systems take approaches that lead to inconsistent estimates. We show how to correct this by delineating possible ways one might want to nest queries and asserting the respective conditions required for convergence. We further introduce, and prove the correctness of, a new online nested Monte Carlo estimation method that makes it substantially easier to ensure these conditions are met, thereby providing a simple framework for designing statistically correct inference engines.
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