Many researchers often encounters such practical situations that involve count variables. A count variable can only take on positive integer values or zero because an event cannot occur a negative number of times. There are numerous examples of count data, for example, the number of insurance claims, the number of accidents on a particular busy road crossing, number of days a patient remains admitted in a hospital, the number of alcoholic drinks consumed per day (Armeli et al., 2015), the number of cigarettes smoked by adolescents (Siddiqui, Mott, Anderson and Flay, 1999) and so on. Undoubtedly, the one-parameter Poisson distribution is the most popular model for count data used in practice, mainly because of its simplicity. A major drawback of this distribution is that its equidispersion property, i.e., the variance is equal to the mean. Count data often exhibit underdispersion or overdispersion. Overdispersion relative to the Poisson distribution is when the sample variance is substantially in excess of the sample mean. Underdispersion relative to the Poisson is when the sample mean is substantially in excess of the sample variance.
Many attempts have been made to develop such models that are less restrictive than Poisson, and are based on other distributions, have been presented in the statistical literature, including the negative binomial, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial (see Cameron and Trivedi (1998) and Famoye (1995), among others). Also various methods have been employed to develop new class of discrete distributions like mixed Poisson method (see Karlis and Xekalaki, 2005), discretization of continuous family of distribution and discrete analogues of continuous distribution.
Mixture approach is one of the prominent method of obtaining new probability distributions in applied field of probability and statistics, mainly because of its simplicity and unambiguous interpretation of the unobserved heterogeneity that is likely to occur in most of practical situations. In this paper a negative binomial (NB) mixture model that includes as mixing distribution the reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed by taking,( where is negative binomial parameter) assuming that is distributed according to a reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution, obtaining the negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution, denoted by , which can be viewed as a comparative model to negative binomial distribution and Poisson distribution.
The new distribution is unimodal, having thick tails, positively or negatively skewed and posses over-dispersion character. Recursive expressions of probabilities are also obtained which are an important component in compound distributions particularly in collective risk model. Basically there are three parameters involved in the new distribution which have been estimated by using an important technique namely Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE) and goodness of fit has been checked by using chi-square criterion.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows: In Section 2, we study some basic characteristics of the distribution like probability mass function (PMF), PMF plot, factorial moments and over-dispersion property. In section 3, we studyas compound distribution and recurrence relation of probabilities are being discussed to compute successive probabilities. Extension of univariate to multivariate version have been discussed briefly in section 4. Section 5 contains information about estimation of parameters by MLE. Two numerical illustrations have been discussed in section 6 followed by conclusion part in section 7.
2 Basic Results
In this section we introduce the definition and some basic statistical properties of distribution. But we will start with classical negative binomial distribution denoted as whose probability mass function given by:
denoted as with , and . Since its usage is important later, so we will discuss some important characteristics of this distribution. The first three moments about zero of distribution are given by:
Also the factorial moment of distribution of order is:
Let random variablehas reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution whose probability density function is given by
where , . We will denote
. The moment generating function (mgf) ofis given by:
Definition 1. A random variable is said to have negative binomial -reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution if it follows the stochastic representation as:
where and we can write and is obtained in Theorem 1.
Theorem 1. Let be a negative binomial -reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution as defined in (5) then PMF is given by
with and .
Proof: Since and . Then unconditional PMF of is given by
which proves the theorem.
Theorem 2. Let be a negative binomial -reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution as defined in (5) then its factorial moment of order is given by
Proof: If and , then factorial moment of order can be find out by using concept of conditional moments as
Using the factorial moment of order of , becomes
Through the binomial expansion of , can be written as
From the mgf of given in Equation (4) with , we get finally factorial moment of order as:
which proves the theorem.
The mean, second order moment and variance can be obtained directly from (10) which are given by
where is the mgf of defined in (4).
Overdispersion() is an important property in count data. The next theorem establishes that the negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution is overdispersed as compared to the negative binomial distribution with the same mean.
Theorem 3. Let be a random variable following whose pdf is given in Equation (3) and is another random variable following negative binomial distribution i.e.,. Suppose consider another random variable having negative binomial -reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution which is defined by stochastic representation given in (5). Then we have:
E()=E(X) & Var(X)> Var().
Proof: We have , then is well defined. Using the definition of conditional expectation, we have
Also, since , we have
Now, using Equation(14), we obtain,
It follows that
Combining (15) and (16), it follows that ,
which proves the theorem.
3 Collective Risk Model under negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution
In non-life Insurance portfolio, the aggregate loss(S) is a random variable defined as the sum of claims occurred in a certain period of time. Let us consider
where denote aggregate losses associated with a set of observed claims, satisfying independent assumptions:
are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d) random variables with cumulative distribution functionand probability distribution function .
The random variables are mutually independent.
Here be the claim count variable representing number of claims in certian time period and be the amount of jth claim (or claim severity). When is chosen as primary distribution(N), the distribution of aggregate claim is called compound negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution whose cdf is given by
where is the common distribution of and is given by (6). is the n-fold convolution of the cdf of . It can be obtained as
Next, we will obtain the recursive formula for the probability mass function of distribution in the form of a theorem.
Theorem 4. Let denote the probability mass function (PMF) of an and for , the expression for recursive formula is:
Proof: The PMF of negative binomial distribution can be written as
Using the definition of and (19), we have:
Also, we obtain now
Proof: The aggregate claim distribution is given by
Using (18), we get:
Using the identities:
Therefore, now (3) can be written as:
Also we can write:
Thus (24) becomes:
Therefore we finally get:
The Integral equation obtained in above theorem can be solved numerically in practice and the discrete version of it can be obtained in a similar fashion by interchanging to in expressions (22) and (23) (Rolski et al. (1999)). So its discrete version obtained are as
4 Multivariate version of negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution
In this section, we propose the multivariate version of negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution which is actually extension of definition (5). The multivariate negative binomial- reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution can be considered as a mixture of independent combined with a reciprocal Gaussian distribution.
Definition 2. A multivariate negative binomial-reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution is defined by stochastic representation:
Using the same arguments as mentioned in section 2, the joint PMF obtained is given by:
The above joint PMF can be written in a more convenient form for the purpose of computing multivariate probabilities. Let , where is given in (26), an alternative structure for (25) with is given by:
where is defined in equation (27). The marginal distribution will be obviously as , and any subvector with is again a multivariate negative binomial- reciprocal inverse Gaussian distribution of dimension . Using (11) and (13), the following expressions for moments can be obtained as:
Since & .
Thus, it follows .
In this Section, we will discuss one of the popular method of estimation namely Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for the estimation of the parameters of distribution. Suppose be a random sample of size from the distribution with PMF given in (6). The likelihood function is given by
The log-likelihood function corresponding to (32) is obtained as
The ML Estimates of , of and of , respectively, can be obtained by solving equations