Multilevel regression with poststratification for the national level Viber/Street poll on the 2020 presidential election in Belarus
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Independent sociological polls are forbidden in Belarus. Online polls performed without sound scientific rigour do not yield representative results. Yet, both inside and outside Belarus it is of great importance to obtain precise estimates of the ratings of all candidates. These ratings could function as reliable proxies for the election's outcomes. We conduct an independent poll based on the combination of the data collected via Viber and on the streets of Belarus. The Viber and the street data samples consist of almost 45000 and 1150 unique observations respectively. Bayesian regressions with poststratification were build to estimate ratings of the candidates and rates of early voting turnout for the population as a whole and within various focus subgroups. We show that both the officially announced results of the election and early voting rates are highly improbable. With a probability of at least 95 Aliaksandr Lukashenka's rating lies between 13 predicted by the method ranges from 9 election. These results contradict the officially announced outcomes, which are 10.12 credible intervals predicted by our model. The only marginal groups of people where the upper bounds of the 99.9 Lukashenka are above 50 all other marginal subgroups, including rural residents, even the upper bounds of 99.9 for the population as a whole. Thus, with a probability of at least 99.9 Lukashenka could not have had enough electoral support to win the 2020 presidential election in Belarus.
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