Modelisation of competition between times series

09/30/2020

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by   Rémy Garnier, et al.

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Competition between times series arises naturally in sales forecasting or in population modelisation. In this article, a model for the behavior of such high-dimensional time series is proposed. This model is based on the prerequisite that the total sum of the time series is distributed between its component following a 'competitiveness' factor inherent to each component. A confidence bound is proposed for the estimation of this model. Then, this model is applied to real-world E-commerce data using a recurrent neural network architecture to compute the model. It improves the results of standard RNN models in most cases.