Modeling ventilation in a low-income house in Dhaka, Bangladesh
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According to UNICEF, pneumonia is the leading cause of death in children under 5. 70 including Bangladesh. Previous research has indicated a potential association between the incidence of pneumonia and the presence of cross-ventilation in slum housing in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The objective of this research is to establish a validated computational framework that can predict ventilation rates in slum homes to support further studies investigating this correlation. To achieve this objective we employ a building thermal model (BTM) in combination with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The BTM solves for the time-evolution of volume-averaged temperatures in a typical home, considering different ventilation configurations. The UQ method propagates uncertainty in model parameters, weather inputs, and physics models to predict mean values and 95 and ventilation rates in terms of air changes per hour (ACH). The model predictions are compared to on-site field measurements of air and thermal mass temperatures, and of ACH. The results indicate that the use of standard cross- or single-sided ventilation models limits the accuracy of the ACH predictions; in contrast, a model based on a similarity relationship informed by the available ACH measurements can produce more accurate predictions with confidence intervals that encompass the measurements for 12 of the 17 available data points.
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