Modeling of Network Based Digital Contact Tracing and Testing Strategies for the COVID-19 Pandemic

12/28/2020 ∙ by Daniel Xu, et al. ∙ 0

With more than 1.7 million COVID-19 deaths, identifying effective measures to prevent COVID-19 is a top priority. We developed a mathematical model to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic with digital contact tracing and testing strategies. The model uses a real-world social network generated from a high-resolution contact data set of 180 students. This model incorporates infectivity variations, test sensitivities, incubation period, and asymptomatic cases. We present a method to extend the weighted temporal social network and present simulations on a network of 5000 students. The purpose of this work is to investigate optimal quarantine rules and testing strategies with digital contact tracing. The results show that the traditional strategy of quarantining direct contacts reduces infections by less than 20 Periodic testing every 2 weeks without contact tracing reduces infections by less than 3 and third degree contacts and the pre-exposure notification system, which acts as a social radar warning users how far they are from COVID-19. The most effective strategy discussed in this work was combined the pre-exposure notification system with testing second and third degree contacts. This strategy reduces infections by 18.3 45.2 uses the app, and 86.8 simulating the model on an extended network of 5000 students, the results are similar with the contact tracing app reducing infections by up to 79



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