Modeling Baseball Outcomes as Higher-Order Markov Chains

by   Jun Hee Kim, et al.

Baseball is one of the few sports in which each team plays a game nearly everyday. For instance, in the baseball league in South Korea, namely the KBO (Korea Baseball Organization) league, every team has a game everyday except for Mondays. This consecutiveness of the KBO league schedule could make a team's match outcome be associated to the results of recent games. This paper deals with modeling the match outcomes of each of the ten teams in the KBO league as a higher-order Markov chain, where the possible states are win ("W"), draw ("D"), and loss ("L"). For each team, the value of k in which the k^th order Markov chain model best describes the match outcome sequence is computed. Further, whether there are any patterns between such a value of k and the team's overall performance in the league is examined. We find that for the top three teams in the league, lower values of k tend to have the k^th order Markov chain to better model their outcome, but the other teams don't reveal such patterns.


Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby league

This study aimed to provide a framework to evaluate team attacking perfo...

Visual analytics for team-based invasion sports with significant events and Markov reward process

In team-based invasion sports such as soccer and basketball, analytics i...

Assessing competitive balance in the English Premier League for over forty seasons using a stochastic block model

Competitive balance is a desirable feature in any professional sports le...

The Art of Drafting: A Team-Oriented Hero Recommendation System for Multiplayer Online Battle Arena Games

Multiplayer Online Battle Arena (MOBA) games have received increasing po...

SMOGS: Social Network Metrics of Game Success

This paper develops metrics from a social network perspective that are d...

A Bayesian Quest for Finding a Unified Model for Predicting Volleyball Games

Unlike what happens for other popular sports such as football, basketbal...

Approximately Strategyproof Tournament Rules in the Probabilistic Setting

We consider the manipulability of tournament rules which map the results...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset