Mind the (spectral) gap: How the temporal resolution of wind data affects multi-decadal wind power forecasts

by   Nina Effenberger, et al.

To forecast wind power generation in the scale of years to decades, outputs from climate models are often used. However, one major limitation of the data projected by these models is their coarse temporal resolution - usually not finer than three hours and sometimes as coarse as one month. Due to the non-linear relationship between wind speed and wind power, and the long forecast horizon considered, small changes in wind speed can result in big changes in projected wind power generation. Our study indicates that the distribution of observed 10min wind speed data is relatively well preserved using three- or six-hourly instantaneous values. In contrast, daily or monthly values, as well as any averages, including three-hourly averages, are almost never capable of preserving the distribution of the underlying higher resolution data. Assuming that climate models behave in a similar manner to observations, our results indicate that output at three-hourly or six-hourly temporal resolution is high enough for multi-decadal wind power generation forecasting. In contrast, wind speed projections of lower temporal resolution, or averages over any time range, should be handled with care.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Temporal fusion transformer using variational mode decomposition for wind power forecasting

The power output of a wind turbine depends on a variety of factors, incl...

Statistical treatment of convolutional neural network super-resolution of inland surface wind for subgrid-scale variability quantification

Machine learning models are frequently employed to perform either purely...

Climate Anomalies vs Air Pollution: Carbon Emissions and Anomaly Networks

This project aims to shed light on how man-made carbon emissions are aff...

Enhanced Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Using Regional Climate Modeling and Continuous Data Assimilation

This study assesses a Continuous Data Assimilation (CDA) dynamical-downs...

Dependence of ocean surface filaments on wind speed: An observational study of North Atlantic right whale habitat

Coherent filaments at the ocean surface often appear to be transient wat...

Realistic Multimedia Tools based on Physical Models: I. The Spectrum Analyzer and Animator (SA2)

The present sequence of two articles reports on a custom-built toolkit i...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset