Mechanistic-statistical SIR modelling for early estimation of the actual number of cases and mortality rate from COVID-19

03/24/2020 ∙ by Lionel Roques, et al. ∙ 0

The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the real number of cases and the mortality rate.In this report, we develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The objective of this model is not to make forecasts but to estimate the real number of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation window in France and to deduce the mortality rate associated with the epidemic.Main results. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably much higher than the observations: we find here a factor x 15 (95 rate (95 find a R0 of 4.8, a high value which may be linked to the long viral shedding period of 20 days.



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