Mathematical Theory of Evidence Versus Evidence

11/09/2018

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by   Mieczysław Kłopotek, et al.

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This paper is concerned with the apparent greatest weakness of the Mathematical Theory of Evidence (MTE) of Shafer Shafer:76, which has been strongly criticized by Wasserman Wasserman:92ijar. Weaknesses of Shafer's proposal Shafer:90b of probabilistic interpretation of MTE belief functions is demonstrated. Thereafter a new probabilistic interpretation of MTE conforming both to definition of belief function and to Dempster's rule of combination of independent evidence. It is shown that shaferian conditioning of belief functions on observations Shafer:90b may be treated as selection combined with modification of data, that is data is not viewed as it is but it is casted into one's beliefs in what it should be like.