Long-Term Forecasts of Military Technologies for a 20-30 Year Horizon: An Empirical Assessment of Accuracy

07/22/2018
by   Alexander Kott, et al.
0

During the 1990s, while exploring the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union on developments in future warfare, a number of authors offered forecasts of military technology appearing by the year 2020. This paper offers a quantitative assessment of the accuracy of this group of forecasts. The overall accuracy - by several measures - was assessed as quite high, thereby pointing to the potential value of such forecasts in managing investments in long-term research and development. Major differences in accuracy, with strong statistical significance, were found between forecasts pertaining primarily to information acquisition and processing technologies, as opposed to technologies that aim primarily at physical effects. This paper also proposes several recommendations regarding methodological aspects of forecast accuracy assessments. Although the assessments were restricted to information available in open literature, the expert assessors did not find this constraint a significant detriment to the assessment process.

READ FULL TEXT
POST COMMENT

Comments

There are no comments yet.

Authors

page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4

01/15/2019

Statistical models for short and long term forecasts of snow depth

Forecasting of future snow depths is useful for many applications like r...
11/03/2021

What drives the accuracy of PV output forecasts?

Due to the stochastic nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, ther...
11/08/2017

Long-Term Sequential Prediction Using Expert Advice

For the prediction with expert advice setting, we consider methods to co...
03/22/2021

Using scoring functions to evaluate point process forecasts

Point process models are widely used tools to issue forecasts or assess ...
09/07/2020

Covid-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursery homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts from school opening

We model the evolution of the covid-19 epidemic in Belgium with an age-s...
03/15/2021

Valid sequential inference on probability forecast performance

Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many appl...
01/22/2018

News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions

The macroeconomic climate influences operations with regard to, e.g., ra...
This week in AI

Get the week's most popular data science and artificial intelligence research sent straight to your inbox every Saturday.